Rob Neyer is at it again

BJ Upton had a great season in Center last year after moving from the infield. He finally hit like everyone expected him to and played well defensively. He tied for first in OPS+ among Center Fielders with Curtis Granderson. Now he's crowned as Rob Neyer's best Center Fielder for the next five years:

"As a hitter, Granderson was a bit over his head last season, but he's obviously an outstanding player. What shocks me is that Upton, four years younger, was just as good with the bat. The Rays spent far too long realizing that Upton's not an infielder, and it's impossible to know how he'll fare in center field, long term. But he's always looked like a center fielder to me, and I have a faith-based belief that he'll be just fine out there."

Congrats BJ.

A Few Rays Rumblings

Here are just a couple Rays related pieces I found yesterday.

First, Rob Neyer continues to rank the best position players, under 30, for the next 5 years on his blog. This week he focuses on left fielders. Neyer points out, correctly, that the crop of good, young left fielders is pretty slim. That forces him to include a couple of players who are over 30(Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano). Last year the top rated player based on OPS+ was Matt Holliday, but that doesn't mean he'll be the best in 2012...that would be Carl Crawford according to Mr. Neyer.

He goes on to say this about Crawford:

"You have to like Crawford, but it's worth mentioning that he has not showed a normal growth curve. At 22, he was roughly six wins better than a replacement player ... and was roughly six wins better than a replacement player at 23, 24, and 25. I'm not sure what to make of that, except there's no obvious reason to think he's suddenly going to become a great player (though I do believe he'll have a few great seasons)."

That's a back handed compliment, but I'll take it.

Neyer couldn't compile a top 10 list, so he did a top 7.

1. Crawford
2. Braun
3. Holliday
4. Soriano
5. Bay
6. Kubel
7. ????

He leaves the last spot open for the star prospects who change poistions and end up in left field...like Ryan Braun.

I think it's a pretty big compliment to have Crawford ranked number one over Ryan Braun. Braun is making the switch to left field this season and if he remains there I think he's going to far outshine Crawford in most offensive statistics. Maybe Neyer is waiting to see Braun duplicate his 2007 success before he ranks Braun at the top?


Next, Keith Law lists his top prospects by organization in his espn.com blog.

Here are the Rays top 5:

1. Evan Longoria
2. Desmond Jennings
3. Wade Davis
4. David Price
5. Jake McGee

The biggest surprise is Jennings number 2 ranking. He just completed his first season in A ball. I hope Mr. Law is right in his rankings, I'd love to see Jennings manning the outfield with Crawford and Upton, if that's possible.

Neyer shows some Rays love

As you all know, I love Rob Neyer's work. It seems he's normally hard on the Rays, so it was good to see some positive words about the recent trades in his chat today.


David (Atlanta, Ga): What do you think of the Garza-Delmon deal? I think the Rays might finally be onto it with Kazmir, Garza, Price, Davis and McGee together in Tampa soon. I really like what Harris did last year but alot of people seem to be higher on Bartlett than i understand. Whats your take on it?

Rob Neyer: (12:45 PM ET ) Bartlett's slightly more valuable Harris, considering defense and Harris's likely decline with the bat in '08. If you run projections for, say, the next five years, the Twins come out ahead because Young has a better (theoretical) chance of becoming a star than Garza has. But Young's no sure thing, and this is basically an even deal.

Steve (Lowell, MA): Can you remember a first overall pick ever being traded so early in his career? I'm glad that the Rays are finally putting some pitching together, but something about that just feels off.

Rob Neyer: (12:53 PM ET ) I look at it the other way. After years of hoarding outfielders as if they could play five at once, they're finally starting to take decisive actions. Last season was sort of a disaster, but I still say things in St. Pete are getting better all the time.

Weekly Chats

New Chat wrap feating J.A. Adande, Jim Callis, Steve Muench, Terry Blount, Chris Mortensen,Orestes Destrade, Rob Neyer, Marcellus Wiley & Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz

First Up J.A. Adande

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey J.A. whats going on in tennis? Gambling, Poison attempts, Cocaine, sounds like a crazy night at the lounge?

J.A. Adande: No sport -- NONE -- has as many wild storylines as tennis. All they need is a positive steroid test. But seriously, Poison????

Next some Rays & MLB with Destrade, Neyer & Callis

Tommy(TheStatPack):Hey Orestes, The Rays have been mentioned as players for Michael Barrett & Torrealba. With Posada now off the market are these 2 the best options available or should they give Navarro more time?

Orestes Destrade: It's a FA field full of catchers this yr. Those 2 prob the best. I like Barrett alot. LaDuca is out there, as is a sleeper in Jose Molina. Remember when nobody wanted Benji and he's had 2 great yrs. Jose is one to look at.

Tommy(TheStatPack):There could be FA's out there who could be named in the Mitchell Investigation and possibly face suspension Will teams be weary about who they sign this offseason?

Orestes Destrade: It's too late for that to be an issue. Owners, just as guilty, I feel and you can't punish the player and not the owners who knew all along. If someone screws up this season or found out for last...I penalize that guy for stupidity, ignorance and all out greed when word has been out strong!

Jules(TheStatPack): What do you think of the Rays plans for a new waterfront stadium?

Rob Neyer: I think I need to dig up the letter Vince Naimoli once sent me, arguing that Tropicana Field is the best ballpark in all the land.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Delmon Young or Pedroia?

Jim Callis: Pedroia deserved the AL rookie of the year award over Young, easily.

NASCAR W/Terry Blount

Tommy(TheStatPack): 30 minutes in and no mention of an international driver or danica?

Terry Blount: And what would a chat be without one mention of Danica. Thanks for bringing it up.

Tommy(TheStatPack): What happened to the 20? Last year he made a ton of noise during the chase and he didn't even qualify for it. This year he makes the chase and falls off

Terry Blount:) Tony never recovered with the deal at Kansas. He had it won when the rain came, wrecked when it restarted and never was a contender after that.

Tommy(TheStatPack): How long before the Danica to NASCAR discussions start? After she wins an Indy Car race?

Terry Blount: You got it. She has to win first, then it's off the big bucks of NASCAR.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Is there any current driver that would be a great crew cheif? Why aren't more former NASCAR drivers involved that way like other sports where alot of players become coaches?

Terry Blount:) If retired drivers say in it, they usually become team owners or broadcasters. Most drivers don't know enough on the technical side to become crew chiefs.

Tommy(TheStatPack): True. What about Steven Wallace's progress? Who will be in Nascar first him or the kid in the Geico commericals?

Terry Blount: The Geico kid will become an actor. Young Wallace is learning and getting better.

Tommy(TheStatPack): When are people going to stop referring to "he would have won it the old way."?

Terry Blount: Never. As long as there was an old system, people will compare the two.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Will the last race of the season stay in homestead?

Terry Blount: It will for next year. Who knows after that, but the final event is limited to warm-weather locations.

Tommy(TheStatPack): How jacked up on Mountain Dew AMP will the crowds be next year? Would it be better if they all just stuck to budweiser?

Terry Blount: At least this way it's better when they get in their cars after the race.

And finally NFL with Mort, Marcellus Wiley, Steve Muench & Aaron Schatz

Tommy(TheStatPack): Tank Johnson looked pretty good on Sunday. With Him now in the mix and Henry, Newman & Ellis healthy can we expect the Cowboys defense to really step it up?

Chris Mortensen: Well, it's a better defense but there will always be some pass coverage deficiencies. That's OK. The Patriots have some of those problems, too.

Tommy(TheStatPack): I know he wouldn't say it on Camera. But how proud of Tony Romo is Parcells?

Chris Mortensen: Very proud. And as we have talked about all the team wanting to press young QBs into action, I know Parcells is proud that he didn't rush Romo, that he let him learn the league, simmer and develop.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Julius Jones is a UFA and Marion Barber is a RFA. By the look of things Jones will be able to walk he hasn't done much this year to warrant the money he's going to be asking for. What will the Cowboys Running Back situation look like next year? Will they be looking a RB 1st day or Maybe go out and sign Michael Turner to complement MB3?

Aaron Schatz: Who says that Michael Turner will get a smaller contract than Julius Jones? Yes, I like the idea of getting a cheaper back to team with Barber and saving money. I doubt it will be Turner, who will get starter's money to go somewhere and start.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Who wins Columbia or Notre Dame if they played on a neutral site?

Marcellus Wiley: Football or spelling bee? In football I still would
say Notre Dame, but for me to even have to think of that, shame on you
Notre Dame. Go Lions!

Tommy(TheStatPack): What could the browns get for Brady Quinn?

Steve Muench: Great question. In my opinion, I would be surprised so see them get anything earlier than a third round pick. While I still think Quinn has what it takes to be a franchise quarterback, several teams passed on him in the draft so there are obvioulsy questions about his trade value. More importantly,he hasn't done anything since.

That's all for the chats this week folks, be sure to tune in next week. Same Stat time, same Stat channel.

Rob Neyer not so opimistic

I normally love Rob Neyer. I'd love to have him for an interview some day, but I don't know how likely that is after his latest entry in his espn.com blog. I'll post the entire thing so you all can read it, his blog is Insider only.

"You can't really blame the Tampa Bay Rays for wanting a shiny new ballpark. After all, everybody else has one! Well, almost everybody. The Marlins don't, but they will. And it just wouldn't be fair if the Rays don't, too.

How are they going to pay for theirs? Well, they say they'll kick in "perhaps as much as $150 million" (which could mean $150 million or $0 million, but when you're launching a PR battle you want to get in a big first strike). They'd like the state to kick in tax revenue from concessions and merchandise in the new building (which is tax revenue that would actually flow into the state's coffers if generated in any other building). Also, "a primary source would be proceeds of the sale of the Tropicana Field site to a developer who would build a large retail/residential complex there."

Sounds generous of them, don't you think? Funny thing about that, though: that land the Rays want to sell for development, with the proceeds financing their new ballpark? As Field of Schemes impolitely observes, the Rays don't own that land Tropicana Field, though, is owned by Pinellas County (and leased back to the city in a complicated tax dodge), so normally any money from developing that site would go to the county, not the Rays. Add in that Al Lang Field is owned by the city of St. Petersburg, and the Rays are effectively asking to develop two publicly owned parcels and keep the proceeds for themselves -- and that's before knowing whether the team would even agree to pay rent to the city on the new park. It's yet another sign that, as I wrote last year, teams are increasingly asking for development rights in lieu of cash, since while they're just as valuable, they don't make for as many nasty headlines. ... The Rays' leverage to make any demands on taxpayers is limited, given that they have an iron-clad lease holding them to Tropicana Field through 2027 -- so if the city says no, it's not like the team can up and threaten to move to Orlando. Certainly no one's a fan of the Trop, which was designed at the height of '80s fixed-dome ugliness -- but with the city still $100 million in debt on the place, one would hope that local officials would at least ask the Rays to pay their own way before letting them out of their lease two decades early.

On point, as usual.

Just a few additional notes:


• Two years ago, new Rays owner Stuart Steinberg said, "You will never -- and I will say it now and hopefully I can say it and you'll follow up -- you will not hear the words, 'We need to have a new stadium.' "

• There really isn't any reason for MLB to continue asking for giant public subsidies. I mean, there's neven been many good reasons, but now there aren't any reasons at all. Local governments are suffering all kinds of financial problems, in part because "tax" has become a dirty word in this country, and in part because voters don't like honest politicians. (Yes, it's our fault.) Meanwhile -- and this story is just beginning to sink in -- Major League Baseball is awash in cash, so much cash that there really aren't enough free agents to go around this winter. We know the teams aren't going to lower ticket prices or stop selling billboards. So why not finance new ballparks? I suspect it's an idea whose time will come, someday.

• Somewhere here on my desk I've got a letter from ex-Rays owner Vince Naimoli. He wasn't happy about something I'd written about his team. Among his points: Tropicana Field was the best ballpark in the majors. Someday I gotta get that sucker framed."

I usually agree with most of Neyer's views, but not this time. I have a feeling that while the Rays will win their first World Series title in '10 will be in the Trop, all the others will be in the new water front stadium.

The RockSox vs the SockRox

Will it ever stop? Add two more writers to the list of people who feel obligated to use the "Rox vs Sox" tag line for their stories. I've never been a big Eric Karabell fan, and in his ESPN fantasy baseball(Insider required) piece this week the headline is "Rox vs Sox, fantasy style!". A person I don't dislike, in fact I admire, is Rob Neyer. I love his wit and wisdom on the game, but even he has succumbed to the appeal of titling a piece he wrote this week "Sox over Rox." I've heard that Rob doesn't write the headlines for his blog articles, and if that is the case I still scold him for not bucking the trend and changing it himself.