Problem with James Shields Mechanics?

Thanks to our friends at DRaysbay for putting this into my head. During yesterdays chat with Baseball Prospectus’s David Laurila, some concern regarding James Shields mechanics was raised. See Below:

Dennis (LA): Thanks for your great work. Your interview with Brian Bannister was one of the best things I read all year last year. Just wanted to ask you your opinion on two players: James Shields and Nick Swisher. What do you see in their futures and who do you think is the more valuable player?

David Laurila: Thanks, Dennis. Bannister makes any interviewer look good.

I recently had someone opine to me concern about Shields' mechanics, specifically that they haven't been consistent over the course of his career. Granted, that's not my opinion -- I'm only passing along what I heard -- but if true it poses a question.

Swisher can hit. Given a choice of the two, I'd take Swisher.

jlarsen (DRays Bay): Could Shields' changing mechanics be due to him regaining velocity and control post-surgeries(I think he's had one kind of reconstructive surgery already)?

David Laurila: This might be a good question for Doug Thorburn. I'll put it on the list, as it's better to get an expert opinion than my own.

I quickly took out the good ol’email address book and asked a pitching mechanics expert if he's seen anything in Shields that should be of concern. My source explained that Shields inconsistency is due to the fact that many different people have tried to get him to develop a “real breaking ball.” The source went on to mention that as long as Shields has a plus change up, he only needs a “show-me” breaking ball to be successful, and also that Jim Hickey is a great fit for Shields.

Rays Willy Aybar arrested on Domestic Violence Charges.

Willy Aybar was arrested last week in the Dominican Republic on domestic violence charges. Aybar has been held without bail since last Thursday and may be in jail until May. For all those who thought Elijah Dukes was bad, Willy Aybar seems worse. However, we've seen players arrested in other countries and be aquitted before i.e. Juan Uribe.

The impact on the Rays could actually be pretty big. Willy Aybar was figured to be Joel Guzman's left handed platoon partner to start the season at third base. Aybar was also expected to be the utility man on the team. Now because of Aybar's latest set back, The Rays may bring in a veteran who can play multiple positions or they may be inclined to have top prospect Evan Longoria start the season in the majors.

Top 100 Prospects of 2008 from Scouts Inc. & Baseball Prospectus analyzed

As promised, here is a more in depth look at the Top 100 Lists of ESPN/Scouts Inc. and Baseball Prospectus. Of course I will start off with the Rays list. Nine Rays made the Top 100 on Scouts Inc. highlighted by: Evan Longoria(1), Desmond Jennings(11), Wade Davis(15), David Price(16) and Jake McGee(26), giving the Rays five out of the top 26 prospects. Rounding out the nine Rays were Reid Brignac (49), Fernando Perez (72), Jeremy Hellickson (75), and John Jaso (78). Not too much to argue with here besides maybe Reid Brignac. Last year's consensus best SS in the minor leagues takes a bit of a hit this year, falling behind Carlos Triunfel (18, Mariners), Elvis Andrus(31, Rangers), and Mike Moustakas (47, Royals). Brignac did take a step back last year offensively, .260/.328/.433, but from most accounts made strides defensively towards becoming a Major League defender as SS. This season will no doubt be a huge year for Brignac, not only to prove his '07 season was a one year slide, but also the addition of Jason Barlett means the Rays now have a legit option at SS for the future besides Brignac. With the lack of a RF prospect one interesting idea would be, if his defense regresses, to move Brignac to Right, where the Rays plan to platoon players this year. Other than that I really don't have many Rays related gripes with Scouts Inc.'s list.

Now on to Baseball Prospectus list of Rays. Again the Rays had a heavy presence at the top, with five of the top 25 prospects headlined by: Evan Longoria (3), David Price (6), Wade Davis (15), Desmond Jennings (18), and Reid Brignac (25). The only other Ray on the top 100 was Jake McGee (40). Obviously there are some discrepancies between the two lists. The most prevalent, in my opinion, is the number of Rays. Scouts Inc. lists nine, but Baseball Prospectus only lists six. Baseball Prospectus completely left off Jeremy Hellickson, Fernando Perez, and John Jaso. I can't understand why. Perez & Jaso should see a lot of action at AAA Durham this year and maybe even get a taste of the big leagues come September. In our recent interview Jim Callis , he said that John Jaso has a chance to be the everyday catcher for the Rays if he can stay healthy. Fernando Perez has an outside chance to crack the Majors this year as the fourth outfielder. If something should happen to Baldelli or Floyd, or most likely both, he could see significant time in a talented Rays outfield. Jeremy Hellickson is still probably two years away and most likely will spend the bulk of his season at High Class A Vero Beach, but he is leader of the next group of arms behind the more advanced Price, McGee, Davis, Niemann, and Talbot.

The rest of the BP Rays list is interesting. Evan Longoria is ranked 3rd behind Jay Bruce (1) and Clay Buchholz (2). I have no problem with Bruce being first. Most people have Bruce and Longoria 1st and 2nd in either order. However, I think this is the first time I've seen Buchholz ranked not only over Longoria, but also Joba Chamberlain who checked in the list at four. I think of it this way, who would I rather have to start a franchise Buchholz or Longoria? I'm taking Longoria all day. I believe the comparisons to David Wright are not only flattering, but very true. If the comparison does pan out then Longoria will be a perennial All Star and MVP candidate. I can't really argue with Desmond Jennings at 18 or Davis at 15. I believe Desmond Jennings is a potential impact player, but I'll see how he does at High A or Double A first before arguing for him to be higher on the list. Davis at 15 is fine and I expect him to be Top 5 or 10 at the least next year. I was very surprised to see Price ranked as high as 6 since he hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet. I've heard all types of projections on Price. One projection early on had him coming in this spring with a chance at the Majors, but most expect him to start at AA Montgomery and quickly rise to the Majors as soon as late August or early September.

The final two on the Baseball Prospectus list are Reid Brignac and Jake McGee. At number 25, Reid Brignac is the second SS on the list behind Moustakas, who most believe is likely not going to be a SS long. The other two SS that were in front of Reid on the Scouts Inc. list, Triunfel and Andrus, check in considerably lower on this list at 55 and 58 respectively. I guess it’s who you ask about Reid Brignac, as there seems to be no consensus to where he belongs. The final Ray on the list is Jake McGee, checking in at 40. The knock on McGee is his lack of a secondary out pitch behind his fastball. I'm interested to see how he progresses this year, where he likely will spend a lot of time at AA Montgomery. If he can develop another one or two above average pitches to round out his arsenal he should be a serious candidate for the top 10 next year. If not, all is not lost with McGee as the Rays maybe able to convert him into a dominate late inning reliever.

That's it for the Rays portion of the lists. I have just a few tidbits on the other names on the two lists. First, Lars Anderson 1B for the Red Sox. Scouts Inc. has him solidly in the top half of their list at 28, while he barely made the Baseball Prospectus list coming in at 100. Again, referring back to our interview with Baseball America's Jim Callis he says, "I think Red Sox first baseman Lars Anderson is going to make a leap forward this year and become recognized as one of the very best hitters in the minors." Like Reid Brignac, I guess it's all about who you ask with Anderson.

Two other names I wanted to look at because of the recent Johan Santana trade were OF's Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez. Gomez is the center piece of the deal and is regarded as the Twins CF of the future if the deal is completed. On Scouts Inc, Gomez checks in at 35, but on BP he's in the lower half at 65. Either way, I feel that Gomez as the center piece is way too low for the greatest pitcher on the face of the planet. The other player in the talks surrounding the trade was Fernando Martinez. Martinez is regarded by most, if not all, as the #1 prospect in the Mets system. The big gripe from the Twins supporters was they traded Santana without getting the Mets crown jewel in return. Scouts Inc. has Martinez at 10 while Baseball Prospectus has him just in the lower half at 51. That’s a pretty big difference. Is he a top 10 player or a barely a top 50 player? Martinez has huge power potential and is an above average defender in CF. He started last season at AA Binghamton at age 18....yes I said 18. An injury cut his season short, but even at age 19 in AA he is on the fact track to the Majors, and a big kudos to Omar Minaya for being able to land Santana (potentially) without giving up his blue chipper.


Ok my fingers have officially cramped up and my eyes are bleeding, but there you have our recap of the Top 100 list of Scouts Inc. and Baseball Prospectus. Of course, each writer and analyst has their own criteria and their own judgments, so no list is perfect. Remember, the Rays own Edwin Jackson was once one of the top prospects in baseball and we're still waiting on him to show that he's even an average starter. We respect Keith Law(Scouts Inc.) and Kevin Goldstein(Baseball Prospectus) tremendously and it will be fun to check up on this list in the next few years to see who's made it, who was a bust and who came out of nowhere to became a star. We expect to have another list from Baseball America soon, so I need to recover so we can do this all over again soon.

Peter King: Rays Nation Leader

Check out Red Sox's fan Peter King decked out in a new Rays hat. He also wore a Rays hoodie on Mike and Mike. The question is Did Peter King lose a bet? Or is he truly a Rays fan? TSP Investigation to follow.

A Few Rays Rumblings

Here are just a couple Rays related pieces I found yesterday.

First, Rob Neyer continues to rank the best position players, under 30, for the next 5 years on his blog. This week he focuses on left fielders. Neyer points out, correctly, that the crop of good, young left fielders is pretty slim. That forces him to include a couple of players who are over 30(Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano). Last year the top rated player based on OPS+ was Matt Holliday, but that doesn't mean he'll be the best in 2012...that would be Carl Crawford according to Mr. Neyer.

He goes on to say this about Crawford:

"You have to like Crawford, but it's worth mentioning that he has not showed a normal growth curve. At 22, he was roughly six wins better than a replacement player ... and was roughly six wins better than a replacement player at 23, 24, and 25. I'm not sure what to make of that, except there's no obvious reason to think he's suddenly going to become a great player (though I do believe he'll have a few great seasons)."

That's a back handed compliment, but I'll take it.

Neyer couldn't compile a top 10 list, so he did a top 7.

1. Crawford
2. Braun
3. Holliday
4. Soriano
5. Bay
6. Kubel
7. ????

He leaves the last spot open for the star prospects who change poistions and end up in left field...like Ryan Braun.

I think it's a pretty big compliment to have Crawford ranked number one over Ryan Braun. Braun is making the switch to left field this season and if he remains there I think he's going to far outshine Crawford in most offensive statistics. Maybe Neyer is waiting to see Braun duplicate his 2007 success before he ranks Braun at the top?


Next, Keith Law lists his top prospects by organization in his espn.com blog.

Here are the Rays top 5:

1. Evan Longoria
2. Desmond Jennings
3. Wade Davis
4. David Price
5. Jake McGee

The biggest surprise is Jennings number 2 ranking. He just completed his first season in A ball. I hope Mr. Law is right in his rankings, I'd love to see Jennings manning the outfield with Crawford and Upton, if that's possible.

Rays closing in on deal with James Shields

From The St. Petersburg Times:

Rays pitcher James Shields and agent Page Odle are on their way to St. Petersburg this afternoon with plans to finalize a 6- or 7-year contract in the next 24 hours.

"My goal is to have this done tonight," Odle said.

We'll have more as it comes in.

According to the St. Petersburg Times:

The Rays have come to terms with James Shields on a 7 year $44 Million Dollar deal(includes possible incentives). The first four years of the deal will be guaranteed. The Rays hold options for 2012, 2013 & 2014.

Excellent deal for the Rays. With the cost of pitching rising at an insane rate, the Rays are getting a great deal. If Shields pitches like an average 3-4 starter, the Rays will be saving about 5-7 Million a year alone on this deal.

Rays sign Kazmir too...

Just when it looked like there was no deal in place the St. Petersburg Times is reporting the Rays and Ace SP Scott Kazmir have agreed on a 1yr $3.785 Million dollar deal avoiding arbitration. With Kazmir signed, the Rays have re-signed all their arbitration eligble players to deals.

Rays sign Carlos Pena, Dan Wheeler & Jonny Gomes, Trade for Willy Aybar

The Rays seem to make moves in bunches, and this week is no exception. The Rays started the week by agreeing to terms with RP Dan Wheeler on a 1 yr $2.875 Million deal. They continued working with their arbitration eligible players, agreeing to a 1 yr $1.25 deal with DH/RF Jonny Gomes. However, they've saved the two biggest deals for last. First, the team just announced they have come to terms with 2007 team MVP Carlos Pena on 3 yr $24 Million dollar deal. Pena, the 2007 MLB Comeback player of the year, set team records with 46 homeruns and 121 RBI. The deal keeps Pena with the Rays through 2010. The other big deal was the acquistion of utility man Willy Aybar from the Braves. Along with Aybar the Rays will receive minor league INF Chase Fontaine in return for Lefty Reliever Jeff Ridgway. Aybar fills a huge void for the Rays by being able to play three infield positions right away. The Rays also plan to get him some work at first base and the corner outfield positions in spring training. The Rays still need a lefty reliever, but obviously were convinced Ridgway was not the answer.

The lone bad news of the week is Scott Kazmir expects to end up in arbitration against the Rays.

"All we can do is really prepare ourselves because they have the file and trial policy,'' Kazmir said. "I guess you just gotta go. They made it loud and clear. ...

"If we go to arbitration, which it kind of looks like right now, so be it. It's just what we have to do. Sure, it would be nice to have everything settled right now and not have anything to worry about.''

The Stat Pack 20 plus: Exclusive interview with Jim Callis

We here at TheStatPack were lucky enough to have the Executive Editor of Baseball America, Jim Callis, answer a few questions for us. If you want to know anything about drafts, farm systems, prospects or the minor league in general, Jim's the foremost authority. If you want to read more of Jim's work you can check out BaseballAmerica, or you can order the 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook here.


TSP:Have you ever been approached by a major league team to work in their personnel department?

JC:Not directly. I've had a couple of teams ask, more in conversation, if I could ever see my self scouting. It would be fun to work for a team, but it also would be tough right now because the hours involved would take me away from my family (four young kids, ages 6 to 12).

TSP:The Rays farm system has been rated at or near the top of baseball for 2-3 years now. What makes it so good?

JC:They have a tremendous combination of blue-chip prospects and depth. They've had a bunch of very high first-round picks because of their poor major league performance, and they've made good use of them (Evan Longoria, David Price). They've also done a nice job with later-round choices such as Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac and Desmond Jennings, to name just a few.

TSP:Do you think the McGee/Davis tandem is as good as advertised?

JC:I do. When we did our personal overall Top 50 Prospects list for the 2008 Prospect Handbook, I had McGee at No. 17 and Davis at No. 18. They're two of the very best pitching prospects in baseball.

TSP:Heath Rollins just put up one of the best seasons in the history of the entire Rays organization. How come his name isn't mentioned in the top group of Rays pitching?

JC:His stuff isn't good enough to rank with that top group. His slider is a legitimate pitch, but the rest of his stuff is fringy. And while his season was impressive, he was 22 and spent the whole year in low Class A, which was not. Let's see him succeed in high Class A and Double-A. Until then, he's more of a "keep an eye on" type than a true prospect.

TSP:Same question just with Chris Mason?

JC:I honestly don't think that's the case with Mason. He's right at the head of the class of Tampa Bay's second tier of pitching prospects. He's not a big velocity guy either, but he did have more fastball in college and may get some more velo back. He has a chance to have three average or better pitches.

TSP:How do you see Jeremy Hellickson progressing through the minors? Is it a stretch to see him at AA next year and in the Bigs by '09 or 2010?

JC:The Rays are very cautious with high school pitching prospects--just look at how carefully they've handled Davis and McGee. Hellickson will definitely start 2008 in high Class A and I wouldn't be surprised if he spent the whole year there. I see more of a 2010 ETA, because of how the Rays handle young arms and also because they'll be breaking guys like Price, McGee and Davis into the majors soon and the pitching staff won't have as many holes as Hellickson gets closer.

TSP:Even after the recent moves, The Rays have a lot of OF talent in the Major Leagues. They also have Fernando Perez, Desmond Jennings, & Ryan Royster working through the minors. Out of that group, who do you see making the biggest impact in the Majors? How soon?

JC:You're right, they still have more outfielders than they know what to do with. I like Jennings. He's a toolsy athlete who seems to be adapting very quickly to pro ball. But because of Tampa Bay's outfield depth, I think he'll get some time to develop. I wouldn't expect him in the majors before 2010.

TSP:Is Evan Longoria the best overall player in the minor leagues?

JC:Close, but I'll go with Jay Bruce. Longoria was the second-rated position player on my Top 50 list in the Handbook, and I had him ranked No. 4 overall.

TSP:How does Evan Longoria compare to former stud 3B prospects Alex Gordon & Ryan Braun?

JC:His bat is in the same class--it's an all-star bat. Longoria is a former shortstop and I think he'll be a better defender at third base than the other two guys.

TSP:What do you expect from David Price this season? Do you think he will start his year at AA Montgomery? If so, does he make it to AAA at some point during the season?

JC:I don't think the Rays have made that decision yet. I do think he'll get to Double-A by June if he doesn't start the season there, and because he has a big league contract and already is on the 40-man roster, I bet he makes his major league debut by September at the latest.

TSP:Do you think John Jaso can be looked at as a future everyday catcher for the Rays?

JC:I do. He's a sleeper who can really hit and play decent to solid defense. The big question is whether he can stay healthy, as he has been bothered by persistent shoulder problems in pro ball.

TSP:Besides Niemann, McGee, Davis & Price the Rays have some other arms like Mitch Talbot, JP Howell & Calvin Medlock hanging around. Do you see any of those three making significant contributions to the Rays in the upcoming years?

JC:I like Talbot more than the other two guys. Howell really competes but has marginal stuff, and Medlock is more a middle reliever for me. I can see Talbot being a No. 4 or 5 starter for Tampa Bay, though the competition for rotation slots will be fierce.

TSP:Obviously there are only 5 spots in the Major League rotation, and a lot of the Rays pitching prospects, barring serious injury, should be ready by the 09 season. Pencil in Kazmir, Shields and Garza, how does the rest of the rotation shake out between Niemann, Talbot, McGee, Davis, Price, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Hammel...etc? Do you see any of those guys as serious candidates for bullpen/closer roles if they don't make it as starters?

JC:The potential depth there is just staggering, isn't it? Of course, injuries and attrition will thin this out a little bit. There has been a little mention of Jake McGee and Wade Davis as a possible closer down the line, and I could see Niemann possibly in that role. The frontline guys right now appear to be Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, David Price, Jake McGee, Wade Davis and James Shields, in some order.

TSP:Is it true that Reid Brignac's defense has improved, and defensively he maybe ready to make the jump? If he gets off to a hot start next season could we see him in the majors this year?

JC:I don't know if he improved in 2007 as much as he held ground. He can get the job done at shortstop and be fine there, but he won't be a Gold Glover. With Jason Bartlett coming aboard in the Delmon Young trade, I think Brignac will spend most of the year in Triple-A regardless of his start.

TSP:The Rays hold the #1 Pick in the draft. If the Draft was held tomorrow their pick would be _______?
JC:The top talent right now is Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez, but the Rays don't really need a third baseman. I think he's more suited to play left field or first base, but those aren't huge areas of need for Tampa Bay either. That said, you don't base the No. 1 overall pick on need. Other guys in the mix at this point would be Missouri righthander Aaron Crow, San Diego lefthander Brian Matusz, Missouri high school righthander Tim Melville and Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham.

TSP:Will we ever see international players incorporated in the Draft? Do you think we should?

JC:I don't think so. For one, it would be a logistical nightmare. And two, while it might save some money on the handful of elite international players because they wouldn't be free agents, it also might drive the cost up on the next tier of players. I would just leave it like it is. Teams that work hard and make the investment can find quality talent at a relatively reasonable price. No need to change that. Putting them in the draft would just gum up the works even further.

TSP:Who's the Rays most overrated prospect right now?

JC:Maybe Jeff Niemann. He's still a good prospect, but I'm becoming less convinced he'll become the frontline starter he looked like coming out of college. He still has a chance to be a No. 3 starter, though.

TSP:Who's the most underrated?

JC:I'll throw a few names at you . . . Glenn Gibson is probably getting overlooked because he only recently came over in the Elijah Dukes trade and hasn't pitched in full-season ball yet, but I like him. Also keep your eye on Jaso, whom we mentioned earlier, and righthanders Alex Cobb and Josh Butler.

TSP:Who's the Baseball's overall most overrated prospect right now?

JC:Two guys I don't like as much as my cohorts at BA are Mets outfielder Carlos Gomez and Marlins righthander Chris Volstad. They're both legit prospects, but I see more tools than skills with Gomez and I don't think Volstad misses nearly enough bats.

TSP:Who's the most underrated?

JC:Reds righthander Johnny Cueto has performed well in the minors and has good stuff, but people underrate him some because he's not very big. I think Red Sox first baseman Lars Anderson is going to make a leap forward this year and become recognized as one of the very best hitters in the minors.

TSP:You're driving the '10 Rays World Series Bandwagon; can you give me an early prediction on the Rays opponent and the World Series MVP?

JC:When I first made that prediction last spring, I had them beating the Dodgers. Let's go with B.J. Upton as World Series MVP.

TSP:"I make you commissioner for one day, what's the first thing you do?"

JC:I'd get rid of the slotting process with the draft. The draft is the easiest and best place for lower-revenue teams to compete with higher-revenue clubs for talent, yet MLB discourages that from happening and steers more talent to the higher-revenue teams.

The Stat Pack would like to thank Jim Callis again for sitting down with us. And remember to pick up a copy of the 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook here.

2008 Tampa Bay Rays?

Now that the hot stove has cooled down for the moment, I want to take a look at how the current Rays roster projects when it comes down to opening day. I'm sure the Rays aren't done making deals and I expect a veteran lefty reliever to be signed or traded for. I also expect a veteran catcher and infielder to be brought in to compete with current backups Shawn Riggans, Ben Zobrist & Joel Guzman. There has also been some talk that a Morgan Ensberg type player will come in to play 3rd base while Longoria gets some more ABs in AAA, but I'm going to assume thats all talk at the moment and Longoria will be here on opening day. Barring major injuries or deals, here is our best guess at the Rays 2008 Opening day roster

LINEUP

2B Akinori Iwamura
LF Carl Crawford
1B Carlos Pena
CF BJ Upton
DH Rocco Baldelli
3B Evan Longoria
RF Jonny Gomes(The Rays open up against the O's and assuming Bedard is still there Gomes will get the bulk of the starts against Lefties)
C Dioner Navarro
SS Jason Bartlett

SP Scott Kazmir

THE REST

C Shawn Riggans
1B/3B/OF Joel Guzman
2B/SS/3B Ben Zobrist
OF Cliff Floyd

SP James Shields
SP Matt Garza
SP Andy Sonnanstine
SP Edwin Jackson*

CP Troy Percival
SU Al Reyes
SU Dan Wheeler
MR Juan Salas
MR Scott Dohmann
MR Gary Glover
LR Jason Hammel*

*Out of Options and can't be sent to minors without passing waivers

Big improvement over last year, especially in the rotation where Jae Seo and Casey Fossum roamed the Trop last year looking for a strike. Defensively, you have to like the improvment especially up the middle. Bartlett and Aki will man the DP positions over Ty Wigginton and Ben Zobrist. While the slick fielding BJ Upton takes over CF for Elijah Dukes who was better suited for a corner OF spot.

Should Longoria Start At 3B? Two Models The Rays Maybe Looking At

The Rays chose Evan Longoria with the third overall pick in the 2006 MLB draft and he has not disappointed. In his one and half years in the minors he's played his way into being the second ranked prospect by MiLB.COM. Longoria has succeeded at every level he has been at, and with the Rays announcing that Aki will move to second base it seemed obvious that Longoria would be the starter at third base on opening day. What seemed obvious a couple weeks ago is now been a question mark with recent comments made by the Rays and the reporters that cover the Rays.

Most Rays fans believed that when the Rays traded Delmon Young it was ok because his production would be made up by the upgrade of the infield by playing Longoria. Since the trade there have been several articles in the media that have discussed the possibility and probability of Longoria not being the starter at third base. Rays fans are excited by the upgrades that have been made in the off-season by the organization and the evolution of Longoria at third base seems to coincide with that strategy.

While fans look at Longoria as a savior at third base, the Rays organization may be looking at two different models of what to do with franchise third basemen. Last season the top two third base prospects in baseball made their way to the pros. One started the season at third (Alex Gordon), and the other came up after a couple months in AAA(Ryan Braun). Both Gordon and Braun were drafted in the top 5 of the 2005 draft and both spent all of 2006 in the minors. Longoria was drafted in 2006 and spent the rest of 2006 and all of 2007 in the minors. Maybe the Rays looked at the different way Braun and Gordon were handled and have made a decision accordingly.

Alex Gordon

Alex Gordon was the second overall pick in the 2005 draft out of Nebraska and has been one of the top prospects in the game ever since. Royals fans have herald him as the next George Brett and savior of the franchise. He only played one year of minor league ball, and despite the Royals organizations promise that he would not skip AAA ball, he did and made his MLB debut in 2007. While he finished the season with decent numbers, it was a struggle for most of the year.
AA Stats:

486 AB .325/.427/1.015 29 Home Runs
1 K per 4 AB
1 BB per 6.75 AB

MLB Stats

543 AB .247/.314/.725
1 K per 4 AB
1 BB per 13 AB

Ryan Braun

Ryan Braun was picked two spots after Alex Gordon in 2005. Braun, like Gordon, was a college third basemen with a high ceiling. Braun signed early, like Longoria, and was able to play a little bit in 2005. He played all of 2006 in the minor leagues but, unlike Gordon, started the 2007 season in the minors. Braun spent an extra month in AAA and dominated, which forced the Brewers to call him up to the big team. Braun did not disappoint the team after being called up and won the rookie of the year.

AA Stats:

231 AB .303/.367/.956
1 K per 5 AB
1 BB in 11 AB

AAA Stats:

117 AB .342/.418/1.119
1 K per 11 AB
1 BB per 8 AB

MLB Stats:

451 AB .324/.370/1.004
1 K per 4 AB
1 BB per 16 AB

Evan Longoria

The Rays organization have case studies of two players that were almost identical in the draft, but were handled differently by their teams. The Rays have always been careful with their prospects and after comparing Longoria's numbers to these two players they may have made a decision already.

AA Stats:

486 AB .298/.388/.934
1 K pe 5 AB
1 BB per 9 AB

AAA Stats:

104 AB .269/.398/.888
1 K per 4 AB
1 BB per 5 AB

Evan's stats in AA are a little below Gordon's, and his AAA stats are much lower that Braun's. Maybe the Rays noticed the same thing and are hoping that by giving Longoria the extra time next season his season will turn out more like Braun than Gordon. The Rays have made some great moves this season, and fans are ready for the team to compete. Longoria is the future of this team and will hopefully help it competitive for years, but would Rays fans rather have Longoria give them a Gordon type season, or wait a month and give them a Braun performance?

The Stat Pack 20: Exclusive Interview with Jonah Keri

Welcome to another edition of The Stat Pack 20. Actually this time is more like The Stat Pack 20+ which is a good thing. This edition features an exclusive interview with Jonah Keri. If you don't know who Jonah is then you probably live under a rock and/or don't pay attention to excellent writing.

Jonah Keri is a writer for ESPN.com and a contributor to multiple other publications, including Investor's Business Daily, the New York Times, the New York Sun, YESNetwork.com and Salon.com. He's also the editor and co-author of "Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong". Jonah has also joined Tom Tango, Craig Burley, John Brattain in a blog to spread the word to the media on Tim Raines' worthiness as a HoF candidate. Please visit http://www.raines30.com/ and help the cause.

Recently we had the privilege to sit down with Jonah Keri to talk about The Rays, Wall street, Final four and the MLB in general. Enjoy

TSP: Obviously we are dedicated Rays fans, as an Expos fan you can share our pain. What are your expectations of the Rays in the next couple of years?

JK: If by "couple", you mean "two", I think by the end of 2009, this team should start to resemble a contender. By then you'll have Evan Longoria starting at 3B, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton hitting the middle of the lineup, and a solid supporting cast. David Price will probably be in the rotation with Matt Garza, James Shields and Jacob McGee (I'm guessing the team will have traded Scott Kazmir by then, or in the 2009-2010 off-season). There's a solid core of talent here, and the next couple years should see the Rays' minor league talent bearing fruit too.

TSP: What are some writers thinking when voting for MVP? Chone Figgans and Frank Thomas received votes in the AL , yet some writers left Carlos Pena completely off the ballot. Where do you think Pena should have finished in the vote?

JK: I'd have put Pena in my top 10 if I had a vote, but not top 5. He had a terrific offensive season, but A-Rod, Magglio Ordonez and David Ortiz did more offensively, and Ichiro, Jorge Posada and Curtis Granderson produced more overall value than Pena given the positions they play--you could make a case for Victor Martinez over Pena too, and I say that as a big Pena fan.

TSP: Scott Boras said Carlos Pena is a $15 million dollar a year player. You've followed Pena throughout his career, do you think this season was a fluke?

JK: Scott Boras would call me a $10 million dollar a year player, and I played one year of Little League (poorly) before giving it up for basketball. I don't think Pena's 2007 was a fluke, but I also think it will end up being the best year of his career. There's no shame in that: If he settles in as a .270/.380/.540 player, for what they paid to get him, I'm sure everyone will be very happy.

TSP: Can you see a scenario where a player like Pena can sign a long term deal with the Rays with Boras as his agent? Or will Boras push him out of their market?

JK: I asked Matt Silverman and Andrew Friedman a similar question. They said they weren't too concerned about it for the time being, since Pena is under team control for the next couple seasons regardless. If I were a Rays fan, I'd hope they don't sign him to a big, long-term deal. Pena turns 30 in May, and the list of long-term contracts for slugging first baseman over 30 that backfired is a mile long: Jason Giambi, Jeff Bagwell, Mo Vaughn...the list goes on and on.

TSP: A few of us at The Stat Pack recently read Ben Mezrich's new book, "Rigged", about the NYMEX. Is it really that crazy & hectic? The book makes it sound relatively easy; are guys really making hundreds of thousands a day moving oil without degrees and financial backgrounds?

JK: When I talk to mutual fund managers, many of them are extremely bullish over the exchanges as stock buys: Nasdaq (NDAQ), IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)--NYMEX is the same idea. It doesn't matter if we're in a bull or bear market for stocks or commodities. These guys are just middlemen, so as long as institutions keep placing buy and sell orders, they can reap profits. Whether or not they have degrees with financial backgrounds, I have no idea.

TSP: You made the transition from Wall Street to Sports. Most of the Rays top executives like Stu Sternberg, Matt Silverman and Andy Friedman have made similar moves. How much of an impact, if any, does that have on them when it comes to spending money and deciding to pull the trigger on certain moves?

JK: I actually still write about the stock market--I've been doing both for nearly six years now. As far as Silverman and Friedman are concerned, that's another thing they talked about in our Q&A. The two of them feel they benefit in a way from coming in as outsiders, in that they don't have the same biases and preconceived notions that can come back to bite teams who rely on baseball lifers who lack an open mind.

TSP: Recently we've spoken to you about your views on the Rays plans for a waterfront stadium. You said you're all for it, but at the same time you agree with Rob Neyer's view about the stadium being publicly funded. Given the details that we have about the situation right now do you think a deal will get done? And what would it mean for the franchise if they cannot get the stadium?

JK: It depends entirely on whether the city votes in favor of the redevelopment plans on the Tropicana Field and Al Lang Field sites. If the vote doesn't pass come November, there's no deal, and it's tough to predict public sentiment, especially this far in advance. It's a potentially exciting deal, though. I've been to every big league ballpark but one (Minnesota), and AT&T Park is easily in my top three--the Rays are talking about building a park with a similar setting, but on a smaller footprint, which could be great. If they don't get the deal done this time, they can always go at it from another angle down the road. It took a bunch of different proposals before the Nats finally built their stadium where they did, for instance.

TSP: Andrew Friedman recently said nobody on the Rays is untouchable. What do you think about the recent rumors of the Rays moving Carl Crawford and Scott Kazmir? Isn't it too early to move those players when most people believe the Rays can contend in the next 2-3 years?

JK: The Kazmir rumors were a case of the Rays saying they'd listen to offers, and the New York media construing that to mean he was on his way to the Mets for a box of Ruben Gotay and a box of Cracker Jack. As for Crawford, the team has him signed to a very favorable contract, so I'd be surprised if they dealt him for anything short of a king's ransom. Friedman has said that no one's untouchable, though, and I like that. Sure, in a perfect world you keep Kazmir, Crawford and everyone else for years to come. But if the right offer comes around, you always have to consider it.

TSP: If the Rays were to win the World Series in 2010, do you see a potential Marlin like fire-sale situation where they could move key players like Crawford, Kazmir, etc in order to get younger cheaper players?

JK: Way, way too early to speculate in these terms. I also don't buy the idea that trading expensive players for cheaper players necessarily constitutes a firesale. After the Marlins won the '97 World Series, yes, that was a firesale. But trading free agents-to-be, making eight figures, for talented, young players with 0-3 years of service time can be a great move in the right context, whether you're the Rays or the Yankees.

TSP: You've said before you think a team can be effective with a 4-Man rotation, using a spot starter once in a while. Do you think that can realistically work over a 162 game season?

JK: It can work, but I don't see it ever happening. The best way for it to work would be to find four very good, pitch-efficient pitchers. Of course there are very few teams that can afford four Greg Madduxes in their prime. And those teams would never stake their reputation and all the money they spent on a four-man rotation.

TSP: In the last decade under the "Steroid Era" Baseball has seen an increase in attendance from 62 million a year to nearly 80 million. Revenue is at a record high 6.075 Billion. How is that a bad thing for business?

JK: Baseball players use performance-enhancing drugs--shocker. So do football players, basketball players, and everyone else. I just can't excited about this story, other than to wonder why the Justice Department has to waste its time on Barry Bonds.

TSP: We are pro Barry Bonds here at The Stat Pack. In your opinion should Barry Bonds be in the Hall of Fame? And Will he ever make the Hall of Fame?

JK: Yes, Bonds should be in the Hall. I'd say there's a very strong chance he never gets in.

TSP: With all the record revenue, TV Contracts, merchandise and revenue sharing in Baseball, how can there still be "small market" teams?

JK: There always will be. Sure, the Rays and other lower-revenue teams share a decent slice of the pie. But compare the Yankees' revenue or the Red Sox's revenue with Tampa, Pittsburgh, Kansas City--they're worlds apart. That's why the Rays have to execute so perfectly--they're at a big financial disadvantage in the AL East.

TSP: We know the Players Association wouldn't ever go for it, but does baseball need a real salary cap like the other major sports?

JK: A salary cap is nothing more than a way for owners to put more money in their pockets. You can tweak the revenue sharing system to further level the playing field. Other than that, restricting players' earning power just makes billionaires richer.

TSP: What about having a salary floor like the NHL that prevents owners from just pocketing money?

JK: Teams should be free to spend whatever they want on payroll. Yes, it's a crying shame that someone like Carl Pohlad is one of the richest men in the world, yet gladly pockets tens of millions a year from revenue sharing, instead of investing in his team. But if MLB is truly committed to finding more ambitious owners, they need to do a better job of inducting new members into their club, instead of giving us giant, leeching wastes of space like Jeffrey Loria. As is, I'd say the Commissioner's office cares a lot more about finding owners who'll fall into line with MLB dogma, instead of recruiting outspoken and ambitious Mark Cuban types to take over franchises.

TSP: Joe Girardi has some very valuable young arms in NY. When he was with the Marlins, all five of his starters ranked in the top 115 in total PAP. Do you see that being a problem between Girardi and the NY Brass?

JK: I don't see that being a major problem. I'd also bet that the Yankees bring in a couple of veterans for their rotation, rather than relying on four young guys.

TSP: Over the last 5 years which GMs do you think have done the best job? The worst?

JK: I think it's a little too facile to give all the credit to the GMs, since it's always a team effort. As for organizations, I've been impressed with the jobs done by the Red Sox and Indians, more recently by the Diamondbacks and Rockies, and a bit before that by the Twins, Braves and A's.

TSP: With all the recent shuffling of GMs in baseball, be it firings, retirements etc, what advice would you give a new GM? What kind of skills does it take to maintain your job in this business?

JK: Win games. Seriously, it isn't any more complicated than that. Win games, and don't make the mistake of working in a town where Bill Plaschke and his ilk dump on you because you don't give good quotes. It's a fickle industry, and plenty of good people get fired for iffy reasons. But accountability is still king--teams that win tend to provide job security for the people that run them.

TSP: What do you think of Andrew Friedman's performance as a GM?

JK: Again, you have to assess the entire organization: Silverman, Feinstein, Hunsicker, Click, Bloom--you have to look at everyone involved in the decision-making process. Overall, though, I like what they've done. The Carlos Pena signing worked out great, the team stuck with B.j. Upton and was rewarded, I've liked what they've done in the draft, and I thought the Delmon Young trade was a very gutsy move, one that could really help the Rays (and the Twins too--the classic good trade for both teams).

TSP: Of course it's only almost the beginning of winter, but who do you have in the Final Four come March?

JK: I made my pre-season picks in print for the New York Sun, so I'm stuck with those four, for better or worse. UCLA, North Carolina, Tennessee and Marquette. It's wide open this year, though, I could name another half dozen teams who have a great shot at it. I'm looking forward to covering my first Final Four in San Antonio in April.

TSP: And finally, being the Expos fan you are, who would have won the 1994 World Series?

JK: Anything can happen in the playoffs--as we saw from the Cards in '06, the Marlins in '03, and in other cases, the best teams don't always win. All I know is the Expos would've been in the playoffs, which would have been a huge accomplishment in itself, considering it only happened one time in team history, and with a strike-related asterisk attached to it at that. I actually quit following baseball altogether when they wiped out the World Series, that's how upset I was with the whole thing. It took my then-girlfriend (now wife of 10 years) to convince me to stick with baseball for the long haul. She bought me a Felipe Alou rookie card, and I was hooked again. Too bad I no longer have a favorite team to root for.

The Stat Pack would like to thank Jonah Keri again for sitting down with us. And please support Tim Raines HoF candidacy at http://www.raines30.com/

Also check out this interview with Andrew Friedman and Matt Silverman by Jonah

Keri: Q&A with Matthew Silverman and Andrew Friedman

Neyer shows some Rays love

As you all know, I love Rob Neyer's work. It seems he's normally hard on the Rays, so it was good to see some positive words about the recent trades in his chat today.


David (Atlanta, Ga): What do you think of the Garza-Delmon deal? I think the Rays might finally be onto it with Kazmir, Garza, Price, Davis and McGee together in Tampa soon. I really like what Harris did last year but alot of people seem to be higher on Bartlett than i understand. Whats your take on it?

Rob Neyer: (12:45 PM ET ) Bartlett's slightly more valuable Harris, considering defense and Harris's likely decline with the bat in '08. If you run projections for, say, the next five years, the Twins come out ahead because Young has a better (theoretical) chance of becoming a star than Garza has. But Young's no sure thing, and this is basically an even deal.

Steve (Lowell, MA): Can you remember a first overall pick ever being traded so early in his career? I'm glad that the Rays are finally putting some pitching together, but something about that just feels off.

Rob Neyer: (12:53 PM ET ) I look at it the other way. After years of hoarding outfielders as if they could play five at once, they're finally starting to take decisive actions. Last season was sort of a disaster, but I still say things in St. Pete are getting better all the time.

Elijah Dukes to Nationals

***UPDATE***The PTBNL is Left handed pitching prospect Glenn Gibson.












***UPDATE***Looks like Dukes has been traded to the Nationals for the ever popular PTBNL. One possibility is Kory Casto a left handed 1B/OF prospect. More to come at a 6 pm press conference


***UPDATE***In the Lastest update to the post that'll never end according to sptimes.com The Rays lost utility infielder Josh Wilson on waivers to the Pirates. The Rays must have taken him off the 40-man roster to make room for an expected addition.


***UPDATE***Also we are hearing from numerous sources that a deal between the Mariners and Rays is in the works involving Edwin Jackson and possibly Ben Broussard.


We've been hearing from our sources as well as sptimes.com that Elijah Dukes has been or will be traded to the Washington Nationals. We've been hearing this rumor for quite some time, but apparently our sources say Jim Bowden has been wanting to pull the trigger on one of his relievers, maybe Jon Rauch? Anyway we will keep you updated on the latest.

Rays get Percival to close the door.

The Hot Stove is burning in Tampa Bay. The Rays will announce the signing of Troy Percival as the teams closer. Terms are 2 years for $8 million dollars with a possible $4 million more in incentives. Percival resurrected his career last year in St. Louis after missing the entire 2006 season.

Percival brings instant credibility and leadership to a bullpen that was historically bad last season. He also brings a great clubhouse presence to a young team searching for leaders. Percival, Dan Wheeler and Al Reyes should give the Rays a solid 1,2,3 punch at the back end of the game.

A Look at the Young for Garza Trade

If the old adage is true that pitching wins championships, the Rays moved in the right direction on Wednesday. The Rays added a very talented pitcher in Matt Garza, who has the potential to be a good number 2 starter in this league, a good stop gap shortstop in Jason Bartlett, and maybe their future closer in Eduardo Morlan. It's always difficult to have to part with a player that posesses the potential that Delmon Young does, but the opportunity to upgrade the team in three different areas was too much to pass up.

There are mixed opinions on exactly how good Matt Garza will really be. Going into 2007, John Sickles had him ranked as the number 1 prospect in the Twins system and gave him an A- grade. In three minor league seasons he had a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 10.04 K/9. He has dominated at every level in the minors and there is nothing to show that he won’t continue that trend in the future. He has not yet pitched a full year in the majors and was up and down when he did pitch, but you can see the talent is there. The Rays will also have control of Garza for the next five years. The addition of Garza to the rotation with Scott Kazmir and James Shields gives the Rays a great young starting rotation for years to come.

In Bartlett the Rays got a good stop-gap shortstop to plug into the lineup until Reid Brignac is ready to play in the majors. He has good range at short and is not the offensive liability that Cesar Izturis would have been. Bartlett is a much better option than the Rays currently had on the team, and the double play combination with Aki at second will be a nice help to the young pitchers on the mound.

The Rays were originally supposed to get veteran Juan Rincon in the deal, but when injury concerns came up the Twins offered relief pitcher Eduardo Morlan instead. Morlan was the Twins number 4 rated prospect by John Sickles and has outstanding numbers in the minor leagues. In four seasons he has an ERA of 2.82 and 11.06 K/9. Some Twins fans have compared him to how Joba Chamberlin has played in his bullpen role. He will most likely start the season in AA this year, but could rise very fast as he has the tools. The Rays may have found a closer for the future or at the very least a great set-up man to bolster the pen.

Delmon is a talented player, but maybe not as talented as he was once thought to be. He was heralded as the number 1 prospect in all of baseball, but his lack of plate discipline has stifled his offensive numbers. If Young could ever learn to have more discipline at the plate he could be a Manny or Vlad type player, but right now a better offensive comparison maybe Jeff Francouer. Defensively no one can deny his great arm, but he does lack great range in the outfield and takes some awkward angles.

Part of the reason the Rays were willing to deal Young may be due to his attitude problem with the organization. We all remember the end of last season when he blew up against Toronto and declared himself out for the last game of the season. Delmon also complained about playing center field when the Rays needed him to do so because BJ Upton and Rocco Baldelli were hurt. He went on record as saying he wanted out of Tampa the first chance he got, and it seems the Rays gave him his wish early.

The Rays dealt from a position of strength to address the major weaknesses on their team. They have a couple of different options on who to play in RF, and Rocco Baldelli is not one of them despite what many Rays’ fans think. The Rays have already said that they are “cautiously optimistic that he can be the DH,” which sounds like they have no intentions of him playing in the outfield and risking injury once again. If Elijah Dukes can stay clear of off the field issues he would most likely get the nod come opening day. He is a talented outfielder and given a full season I think he will out hit and out play Delmon Young in the outfield. Justin Ruggiano, who has been compared to Jason Bay, could also push for the spot in right field next year. He had a great season not only in Durham, but also in the AFL and for Team USA.

At the end of the day the Rays were able to address three areas of need with the trade and that fact made the deal to hard to pass up. Who won and lost this trade will depend on Delmon Young and that won’t be known until a couple years from now. Could the Rays have gotten more for Young? Maybe, but I do know that the overall team improved with this trade today.

Land of the Tax Free and Home of the Rays?

The Rays and Owner Stuart Sternberg formally announced plans today for their open-air waterfront stadium. "We’re talking about a major-league downtown," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said. Sternberg also added "No New Taxes." We'll see about that one.

I suggest taking the virtual tour

More from The Stat Pack on the new stadium to come


































To View the Rest

Rob Neyer not so opimistic

I normally love Rob Neyer. I'd love to have him for an interview some day, but I don't know how likely that is after his latest entry in his espn.com blog. I'll post the entire thing so you all can read it, his blog is Insider only.

"You can't really blame the Tampa Bay Rays for wanting a shiny new ballpark. After all, everybody else has one! Well, almost everybody. The Marlins don't, but they will. And it just wouldn't be fair if the Rays don't, too.

How are they going to pay for theirs? Well, they say they'll kick in "perhaps as much as $150 million" (which could mean $150 million or $0 million, but when you're launching a PR battle you want to get in a big first strike). They'd like the state to kick in tax revenue from concessions and merchandise in the new building (which is tax revenue that would actually flow into the state's coffers if generated in any other building). Also, "a primary source would be proceeds of the sale of the Tropicana Field site to a developer who would build a large retail/residential complex there."

Sounds generous of them, don't you think? Funny thing about that, though: that land the Rays want to sell for development, with the proceeds financing their new ballpark? As Field of Schemes impolitely observes, the Rays don't own that land Tropicana Field, though, is owned by Pinellas County (and leased back to the city in a complicated tax dodge), so normally any money from developing that site would go to the county, not the Rays. Add in that Al Lang Field is owned by the city of St. Petersburg, and the Rays are effectively asking to develop two publicly owned parcels and keep the proceeds for themselves -- and that's before knowing whether the team would even agree to pay rent to the city on the new park. It's yet another sign that, as I wrote last year, teams are increasingly asking for development rights in lieu of cash, since while they're just as valuable, they don't make for as many nasty headlines. ... The Rays' leverage to make any demands on taxpayers is limited, given that they have an iron-clad lease holding them to Tropicana Field through 2027 -- so if the city says no, it's not like the team can up and threaten to move to Orlando. Certainly no one's a fan of the Trop, which was designed at the height of '80s fixed-dome ugliness -- but with the city still $100 million in debt on the place, one would hope that local officials would at least ask the Rays to pay their own way before letting them out of their lease two decades early.

On point, as usual.

Just a few additional notes:


• Two years ago, new Rays owner Stuart Steinberg said, "You will never -- and I will say it now and hopefully I can say it and you'll follow up -- you will not hear the words, 'We need to have a new stadium.' "

• There really isn't any reason for MLB to continue asking for giant public subsidies. I mean, there's neven been many good reasons, but now there aren't any reasons at all. Local governments are suffering all kinds of financial problems, in part because "tax" has become a dirty word in this country, and in part because voters don't like honest politicians. (Yes, it's our fault.) Meanwhile -- and this story is just beginning to sink in -- Major League Baseball is awash in cash, so much cash that there really aren't enough free agents to go around this winter. We know the teams aren't going to lower ticket prices or stop selling billboards. So why not finance new ballparks? I suspect it's an idea whose time will come, someday.

• Somewhere here on my desk I've got a letter from ex-Rays owner Vince Naimoli. He wasn't happy about something I'd written about his team. Among his points: Tropicana Field was the best ballpark in the majors. Someday I gotta get that sucker framed."

I usually agree with most of Neyer's views, but not this time. I have a feeling that while the Rays will win their first World Series title in '10 will be in the Trop, all the others will be in the new water front stadium.

Rays planning Waterfront stadium

Obviously the Rays know how to keep everyone's attention. One day after unveiling a new logo and uniform, the newly named Rays announced plans to build a $450 Million 35,000 seat stadium along the waterfront where Al Lang Stadium currently sits. The new stadium will have a McCovey Cove-like aspect as home runs/foul balls hit to Right field will splash into the water. Also the stadium will be open-air with covering. Some areas will be air-conditioned. I can't wait to see some prototypes.

Pena wins Silver Slugger

Congratulations to Carolis Pena for becomming the first Rays player to ever win a Silver Slugger Award. This award caps a career year in which Pena hit .282, and a franchise best 46 home runs and 121 RBI. It couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. Congrats Carlos...now just keep it up.