Tuesday, December 4, 2007

The Stat Pack 20: Exclusive Interview with Jonah Keri

Welcome to another edition of The Stat Pack 20. Actually this time is more like The Stat Pack 20+ which is a good thing. This edition features an exclusive interview with Jonah Keri. If you don't know who Jonah is then you probably live under a rock and/or don't pay attention to excellent writing.

Jonah Keri is a writer for ESPN.com and a contributor to multiple other publications, including Investor's Business Daily, the New York Times, the New York Sun, YESNetwork.com and Salon.com. He's also the editor and co-author of "Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong". Jonah has also joined Tom Tango, Craig Burley, John Brattain in a blog to spread the word to the media on Tim Raines' worthiness as a HoF candidate. Please visit http://www.raines30.com/ and help the cause.

Recently we had the privilege to sit down with Jonah Keri to talk about The Rays, Wall street, Final four and the MLB in general. Enjoy

TSP: Obviously we are dedicated Rays fans, as an Expos fan you can share our pain. What are your expectations of the Rays in the next couple of years?

JK: If by "couple", you mean "two", I think by the end of 2009, this team should start to resemble a contender. By then you'll have Evan Longoria starting at 3B, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton hitting the middle of the lineup, and a solid supporting cast. David Price will probably be in the rotation with Matt Garza, James Shields and Jacob McGee (I'm guessing the team will have traded Scott Kazmir by then, or in the 2009-2010 off-season). There's a solid core of talent here, and the next couple years should see the Rays' minor league talent bearing fruit too.

TSP: What are some writers thinking when voting for MVP? Chone Figgans and Frank Thomas received votes in the AL , yet some writers left Carlos Pena completely off the ballot. Where do you think Pena should have finished in the vote?

JK: I'd have put Pena in my top 10 if I had a vote, but not top 5. He had a terrific offensive season, but A-Rod, Magglio Ordonez and David Ortiz did more offensively, and Ichiro, Jorge Posada and Curtis Granderson produced more overall value than Pena given the positions they play--you could make a case for Victor Martinez over Pena too, and I say that as a big Pena fan.

TSP: Scott Boras said Carlos Pena is a $15 million dollar a year player. You've followed Pena throughout his career, do you think this season was a fluke?

JK: Scott Boras would call me a $10 million dollar a year player, and I played one year of Little League (poorly) before giving it up for basketball. I don't think Pena's 2007 was a fluke, but I also think it will end up being the best year of his career. There's no shame in that: If he settles in as a .270/.380/.540 player, for what they paid to get him, I'm sure everyone will be very happy.

TSP: Can you see a scenario where a player like Pena can sign a long term deal with the Rays with Boras as his agent? Or will Boras push him out of their market?

JK: I asked Matt Silverman and Andrew Friedman a similar question. They said they weren't too concerned about it for the time being, since Pena is under team control for the next couple seasons regardless. If I were a Rays fan, I'd hope they don't sign him to a big, long-term deal. Pena turns 30 in May, and the list of long-term contracts for slugging first baseman over 30 that backfired is a mile long: Jason Giambi, Jeff Bagwell, Mo Vaughn...the list goes on and on.

TSP: A few of us at The Stat Pack recently read Ben Mezrich's new book, "Rigged", about the NYMEX. Is it really that crazy & hectic? The book makes it sound relatively easy; are guys really making hundreds of thousands a day moving oil without degrees and financial backgrounds?

JK: When I talk to mutual fund managers, many of them are extremely bullish over the exchanges as stock buys: Nasdaq (NDAQ), IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)--NYMEX is the same idea. It doesn't matter if we're in a bull or bear market for stocks or commodities. These guys are just middlemen, so as long as institutions keep placing buy and sell orders, they can reap profits. Whether or not they have degrees with financial backgrounds, I have no idea.

TSP: You made the transition from Wall Street to Sports. Most of the Rays top executives like Stu Sternberg, Matt Silverman and Andy Friedman have made similar moves. How much of an impact, if any, does that have on them when it comes to spending money and deciding to pull the trigger on certain moves?

JK: I actually still write about the stock market--I've been doing both for nearly six years now. As far as Silverman and Friedman are concerned, that's another thing they talked about in our Q&A. The two of them feel they benefit in a way from coming in as outsiders, in that they don't have the same biases and preconceived notions that can come back to bite teams who rely on baseball lifers who lack an open mind.

TSP: Recently we've spoken to you about your views on the Rays plans for a waterfront stadium. You said you're all for it, but at the same time you agree with Rob Neyer's view about the stadium being publicly funded. Given the details that we have about the situation right now do you think a deal will get done? And what would it mean for the franchise if they cannot get the stadium?

JK: It depends entirely on whether the city votes in favor of the redevelopment plans on the Tropicana Field and Al Lang Field sites. If the vote doesn't pass come November, there's no deal, and it's tough to predict public sentiment, especially this far in advance. It's a potentially exciting deal, though. I've been to every big league ballpark but one (Minnesota), and AT&T Park is easily in my top three--the Rays are talking about building a park with a similar setting, but on a smaller footprint, which could be great. If they don't get the deal done this time, they can always go at it from another angle down the road. It took a bunch of different proposals before the Nats finally built their stadium where they did, for instance.

TSP: Andrew Friedman recently said nobody on the Rays is untouchable. What do you think about the recent rumors of the Rays moving Carl Crawford and Scott Kazmir? Isn't it too early to move those players when most people believe the Rays can contend in the next 2-3 years?

JK: The Kazmir rumors were a case of the Rays saying they'd listen to offers, and the New York media construing that to mean he was on his way to the Mets for a box of Ruben Gotay and a box of Cracker Jack. As for Crawford, the team has him signed to a very favorable contract, so I'd be surprised if they dealt him for anything short of a king's ransom. Friedman has said that no one's untouchable, though, and I like that. Sure, in a perfect world you keep Kazmir, Crawford and everyone else for years to come. But if the right offer comes around, you always have to consider it.

TSP: If the Rays were to win the World Series in 2010, do you see a potential Marlin like fire-sale situation where they could move key players like Crawford, Kazmir, etc in order to get younger cheaper players?

JK: Way, way too early to speculate in these terms. I also don't buy the idea that trading expensive players for cheaper players necessarily constitutes a firesale. After the Marlins won the '97 World Series, yes, that was a firesale. But trading free agents-to-be, making eight figures, for talented, young players with 0-3 years of service time can be a great move in the right context, whether you're the Rays or the Yankees.

TSP: You've said before you think a team can be effective with a 4-Man rotation, using a spot starter once in a while. Do you think that can realistically work over a 162 game season?

JK: It can work, but I don't see it ever happening. The best way for it to work would be to find four very good, pitch-efficient pitchers. Of course there are very few teams that can afford four Greg Madduxes in their prime. And those teams would never stake their reputation and all the money they spent on a four-man rotation.

TSP: In the last decade under the "Steroid Era" Baseball has seen an increase in attendance from 62 million a year to nearly 80 million. Revenue is at a record high 6.075 Billion. How is that a bad thing for business?

JK: Baseball players use performance-enhancing drugs--shocker. So do football players, basketball players, and everyone else. I just can't excited about this story, other than to wonder why the Justice Department has to waste its time on Barry Bonds.

TSP: We are pro Barry Bonds here at The Stat Pack. In your opinion should Barry Bonds be in the Hall of Fame? And Will he ever make the Hall of Fame?

JK: Yes, Bonds should be in the Hall. I'd say there's a very strong chance he never gets in.

TSP: With all the record revenue, TV Contracts, merchandise and revenue sharing in Baseball, how can there still be "small market" teams?

JK: There always will be. Sure, the Rays and other lower-revenue teams share a decent slice of the pie. But compare the Yankees' revenue or the Red Sox's revenue with Tampa, Pittsburgh, Kansas City--they're worlds apart. That's why the Rays have to execute so perfectly--they're at a big financial disadvantage in the AL East.

TSP: We know the Players Association wouldn't ever go for it, but does baseball need a real salary cap like the other major sports?

JK: A salary cap is nothing more than a way for owners to put more money in their pockets. You can tweak the revenue sharing system to further level the playing field. Other than that, restricting players' earning power just makes billionaires richer.

TSP: What about having a salary floor like the NHL that prevents owners from just pocketing money?

JK: Teams should be free to spend whatever they want on payroll. Yes, it's a crying shame that someone like Carl Pohlad is one of the richest men in the world, yet gladly pockets tens of millions a year from revenue sharing, instead of investing in his team. But if MLB is truly committed to finding more ambitious owners, they need to do a better job of inducting new members into their club, instead of giving us giant, leeching wastes of space like Jeffrey Loria. As is, I'd say the Commissioner's office cares a lot more about finding owners who'll fall into line with MLB dogma, instead of recruiting outspoken and ambitious Mark Cuban types to take over franchises.

TSP: Joe Girardi has some very valuable young arms in NY. When he was with the Marlins, all five of his starters ranked in the top 115 in total PAP. Do you see that being a problem between Girardi and the NY Brass?

JK: I don't see that being a major problem. I'd also bet that the Yankees bring in a couple of veterans for their rotation, rather than relying on four young guys.

TSP: Over the last 5 years which GMs do you think have done the best job? The worst?

JK: I think it's a little too facile to give all the credit to the GMs, since it's always a team effort. As for organizations, I've been impressed with the jobs done by the Red Sox and Indians, more recently by the Diamondbacks and Rockies, and a bit before that by the Twins, Braves and A's.

TSP: With all the recent shuffling of GMs in baseball, be it firings, retirements etc, what advice would you give a new GM? What kind of skills does it take to maintain your job in this business?

JK: Win games. Seriously, it isn't any more complicated than that. Win games, and don't make the mistake of working in a town where Bill Plaschke and his ilk dump on you because you don't give good quotes. It's a fickle industry, and plenty of good people get fired for iffy reasons. But accountability is still king--teams that win tend to provide job security for the people that run them.

TSP: What do you think of Andrew Friedman's performance as a GM?

JK: Again, you have to assess the entire organization: Silverman, Feinstein, Hunsicker, Click, Bloom--you have to look at everyone involved in the decision-making process. Overall, though, I like what they've done. The Carlos Pena signing worked out great, the team stuck with B.j. Upton and was rewarded, I've liked what they've done in the draft, and I thought the Delmon Young trade was a very gutsy move, one that could really help the Rays (and the Twins too--the classic good trade for both teams).

TSP: Of course it's only almost the beginning of winter, but who do you have in the Final Four come March?

JK: I made my pre-season picks in print for the New York Sun, so I'm stuck with those four, for better or worse. UCLA, North Carolina, Tennessee and Marquette. It's wide open this year, though, I could name another half dozen teams who have a great shot at it. I'm looking forward to covering my first Final Four in San Antonio in April.

TSP: And finally, being the Expos fan you are, who would have won the 1994 World Series?

JK: Anything can happen in the playoffs--as we saw from the Cards in '06, the Marlins in '03, and in other cases, the best teams don't always win. All I know is the Expos would've been in the playoffs, which would have been a huge accomplishment in itself, considering it only happened one time in team history, and with a strike-related asterisk attached to it at that. I actually quit following baseball altogether when they wiped out the World Series, that's how upset I was with the whole thing. It took my then-girlfriend (now wife of 10 years) to convince me to stick with baseball for the long haul. She bought me a Felipe Alou rookie card, and I was hooked again. Too bad I no longer have a favorite team to root for.

The Stat Pack would like to thank Jonah Keri again for sitting down with us. And please support Tim Raines HoF candidacy at http://www.raines30.com/

Also check out this interview with Andrew Friedman and Matt Silverman by Jonah

Keri: Q&A with Matthew Silverman and Andrew Friedman

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