The Stat Pack 20 plus: Exclusive interview with Jim Callis

We here at TheStatPack were lucky enough to have the Executive Editor of Baseball America, Jim Callis, answer a few questions for us. If you want to know anything about drafts, farm systems, prospects or the minor league in general, Jim's the foremost authority. If you want to read more of Jim's work you can check out BaseballAmerica, or you can order the 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook here.


TSP:Have you ever been approached by a major league team to work in their personnel department?

JC:Not directly. I've had a couple of teams ask, more in conversation, if I could ever see my self scouting. It would be fun to work for a team, but it also would be tough right now because the hours involved would take me away from my family (four young kids, ages 6 to 12).

TSP:The Rays farm system has been rated at or near the top of baseball for 2-3 years now. What makes it so good?

JC:They have a tremendous combination of blue-chip prospects and depth. They've had a bunch of very high first-round picks because of their poor major league performance, and they've made good use of them (Evan Longoria, David Price). They've also done a nice job with later-round choices such as Jake McGee, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac and Desmond Jennings, to name just a few.

TSP:Do you think the McGee/Davis tandem is as good as advertised?

JC:I do. When we did our personal overall Top 50 Prospects list for the 2008 Prospect Handbook, I had McGee at No. 17 and Davis at No. 18. They're two of the very best pitching prospects in baseball.

TSP:Heath Rollins just put up one of the best seasons in the history of the entire Rays organization. How come his name isn't mentioned in the top group of Rays pitching?

JC:His stuff isn't good enough to rank with that top group. His slider is a legitimate pitch, but the rest of his stuff is fringy. And while his season was impressive, he was 22 and spent the whole year in low Class A, which was not. Let's see him succeed in high Class A and Double-A. Until then, he's more of a "keep an eye on" type than a true prospect.

TSP:Same question just with Chris Mason?

JC:I honestly don't think that's the case with Mason. He's right at the head of the class of Tampa Bay's second tier of pitching prospects. He's not a big velocity guy either, but he did have more fastball in college and may get some more velo back. He has a chance to have three average or better pitches.

TSP:How do you see Jeremy Hellickson progressing through the minors? Is it a stretch to see him at AA next year and in the Bigs by '09 or 2010?

JC:The Rays are very cautious with high school pitching prospects--just look at how carefully they've handled Davis and McGee. Hellickson will definitely start 2008 in high Class A and I wouldn't be surprised if he spent the whole year there. I see more of a 2010 ETA, because of how the Rays handle young arms and also because they'll be breaking guys like Price, McGee and Davis into the majors soon and the pitching staff won't have as many holes as Hellickson gets closer.

TSP:Even after the recent moves, The Rays have a lot of OF talent in the Major Leagues. They also have Fernando Perez, Desmond Jennings, & Ryan Royster working through the minors. Out of that group, who do you see making the biggest impact in the Majors? How soon?

JC:You're right, they still have more outfielders than they know what to do with. I like Jennings. He's a toolsy athlete who seems to be adapting very quickly to pro ball. But because of Tampa Bay's outfield depth, I think he'll get some time to develop. I wouldn't expect him in the majors before 2010.

TSP:Is Evan Longoria the best overall player in the minor leagues?

JC:Close, but I'll go with Jay Bruce. Longoria was the second-rated position player on my Top 50 list in the Handbook, and I had him ranked No. 4 overall.

TSP:How does Evan Longoria compare to former stud 3B prospects Alex Gordon & Ryan Braun?

JC:His bat is in the same class--it's an all-star bat. Longoria is a former shortstop and I think he'll be a better defender at third base than the other two guys.

TSP:What do you expect from David Price this season? Do you think he will start his year at AA Montgomery? If so, does he make it to AAA at some point during the season?

JC:I don't think the Rays have made that decision yet. I do think he'll get to Double-A by June if he doesn't start the season there, and because he has a big league contract and already is on the 40-man roster, I bet he makes his major league debut by September at the latest.

TSP:Do you think John Jaso can be looked at as a future everyday catcher for the Rays?

JC:I do. He's a sleeper who can really hit and play decent to solid defense. The big question is whether he can stay healthy, as he has been bothered by persistent shoulder problems in pro ball.

TSP:Besides Niemann, McGee, Davis & Price the Rays have some other arms like Mitch Talbot, JP Howell & Calvin Medlock hanging around. Do you see any of those three making significant contributions to the Rays in the upcoming years?

JC:I like Talbot more than the other two guys. Howell really competes but has marginal stuff, and Medlock is more a middle reliever for me. I can see Talbot being a No. 4 or 5 starter for Tampa Bay, though the competition for rotation slots will be fierce.

TSP:Obviously there are only 5 spots in the Major League rotation, and a lot of the Rays pitching prospects, barring serious injury, should be ready by the 09 season. Pencil in Kazmir, Shields and Garza, how does the rest of the rotation shake out between Niemann, Talbot, McGee, Davis, Price, Jackson, Sonnanstine, Hammel...etc? Do you see any of those guys as serious candidates for bullpen/closer roles if they don't make it as starters?

JC:The potential depth there is just staggering, isn't it? Of course, injuries and attrition will thin this out a little bit. There has been a little mention of Jake McGee and Wade Davis as a possible closer down the line, and I could see Niemann possibly in that role. The frontline guys right now appear to be Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, David Price, Jake McGee, Wade Davis and James Shields, in some order.

TSP:Is it true that Reid Brignac's defense has improved, and defensively he maybe ready to make the jump? If he gets off to a hot start next season could we see him in the majors this year?

JC:I don't know if he improved in 2007 as much as he held ground. He can get the job done at shortstop and be fine there, but he won't be a Gold Glover. With Jason Bartlett coming aboard in the Delmon Young trade, I think Brignac will spend most of the year in Triple-A regardless of his start.

TSP:The Rays hold the #1 Pick in the draft. If the Draft was held tomorrow their pick would be _______?
JC:The top talent right now is Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez, but the Rays don't really need a third baseman. I think he's more suited to play left field or first base, but those aren't huge areas of need for Tampa Bay either. That said, you don't base the No. 1 overall pick on need. Other guys in the mix at this point would be Missouri righthander Aaron Crow, San Diego lefthander Brian Matusz, Missouri high school righthander Tim Melville and Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham.

TSP:Will we ever see international players incorporated in the Draft? Do you think we should?

JC:I don't think so. For one, it would be a logistical nightmare. And two, while it might save some money on the handful of elite international players because they wouldn't be free agents, it also might drive the cost up on the next tier of players. I would just leave it like it is. Teams that work hard and make the investment can find quality talent at a relatively reasonable price. No need to change that. Putting them in the draft would just gum up the works even further.

TSP:Who's the Rays most overrated prospect right now?

JC:Maybe Jeff Niemann. He's still a good prospect, but I'm becoming less convinced he'll become the frontline starter he looked like coming out of college. He still has a chance to be a No. 3 starter, though.

TSP:Who's the most underrated?

JC:I'll throw a few names at you . . . Glenn Gibson is probably getting overlooked because he only recently came over in the Elijah Dukes trade and hasn't pitched in full-season ball yet, but I like him. Also keep your eye on Jaso, whom we mentioned earlier, and righthanders Alex Cobb and Josh Butler.

TSP:Who's the Baseball's overall most overrated prospect right now?

JC:Two guys I don't like as much as my cohorts at BA are Mets outfielder Carlos Gomez and Marlins righthander Chris Volstad. They're both legit prospects, but I see more tools than skills with Gomez and I don't think Volstad misses nearly enough bats.

TSP:Who's the most underrated?

JC:Reds righthander Johnny Cueto has performed well in the minors and has good stuff, but people underrate him some because he's not very big. I think Red Sox first baseman Lars Anderson is going to make a leap forward this year and become recognized as one of the very best hitters in the minors.

TSP:You're driving the '10 Rays World Series Bandwagon; can you give me an early prediction on the Rays opponent and the World Series MVP?

JC:When I first made that prediction last spring, I had them beating the Dodgers. Let's go with B.J. Upton as World Series MVP.

TSP:"I make you commissioner for one day, what's the first thing you do?"

JC:I'd get rid of the slotting process with the draft. The draft is the easiest and best place for lower-revenue teams to compete with higher-revenue clubs for talent, yet MLB discourages that from happening and steers more talent to the higher-revenue teams.

The Stat Pack would like to thank Jim Callis again for sitting down with us. And remember to pick up a copy of the 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook here.

Weekly Chats

It's that time of the week, Chat Day here at The Stat Pack. We have started to branch out into the other sports a little more since the NFL is in full swing and NBA is about to start up. Oh and by the way we've busted out the big names...Chris Mortensen, Mel Kiper Jr, Jim Callis, Will Carroll etc...

We'll start out with Jim Callis of Baseball America, he seems to be our biggest fan. Then we'll move to John Perrotto & Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, Lots of good stuff there. Besides our typical Rays talk we branched out to some other things. Tommy tried to start a nickname Ryan Braun Campaign with Perrotto that included Back 2 Back Chat posts By Tommy & Jules; very Big Papi & ManRam-like. Jules may have started a possible war with Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus on who really started the Rays World Series Bandwagon...Enjoy

We're going to start including questions/statements from other chatters that are Rays-centric.

Jules (TheStatPack): I think the guys at BP are taking the reins of the Rays Bandwagon from you. You gonna step it up Jim?

Jim: I built that bandwagon! They can not take the reins! Come on! Back in our season preview, I had the Rays making the playoffs in 2010. I defy BP to show earlier support, so I will not relinquish the reins!

JW: People start asking him '10 Rays questions after I questioned his commitment.

Brad (Gadsden,Alabama): Is the David Price going to be the rays #1 starter when they go to the playoffs in 2010?

Jim: Yes.

PJ (Agawam MA): Are the Rays the East champ in 2010 or the wild card?

Jim: I had them as the East champs . . . and beating the Dodgers in the World Series.

Rob (ct): Best farm system in the AL east?

Jim: Devil Rays.

JW: That one was easy

Morgan (Newport Beach, CA): Brandon Wood or Evan Longoria

Jim: Longoria.

That's it for the Baseball America portion. On to Baseball Prospectus.

First up is the Tuesday chat with Kevin Goldstein.

userlock (NC): If Brignac has a good showing in the AFL, how much does he improve his stock? A Triple-A start with a look in september maybe?

Kevin Goldstein: I think that's Brignac's schedule as-is, even before the AFL season begins. I'm not sure how a big month in Arizona would change that too much.

Upton Fan (Tampa): Joe Sheehan and Will Carrol were talkin on fantasy 411 about Ian Stewart taking over at third sooner rather than later. Did I miss something good in his development? Or should I call and straighten them out about his future with the Rocks?

Kevin Goldstein: I'm just not buying it, but I think I'm also way further down than most are on him. He's just not that good. He's never been more than alright since his huge Sally League season -- and that's pretty much ancient history at this point. Decent third-base prospect, but no more.

Why'd that guy post as Upton Fan(Tampa) then ask a Rockies question?

JW: This question isn't Rays related or funny in any way, I just thought it was very interesting.

Scott (Chicago): How much do scouts make? From the 30 year scouts to the guys who have yet to make any organizational impact.

Kevin Goldstein: The job starts at about 30K/year with 200+ days a year of travel. A bigtime experienced area scout with an important region -- like SoCal or Texas or part of Florida is probably up to maybe 50-60K. Once you get into the cross-checkers and supervisors you move up a little more, and scouting directors get into the six-figures -- with more coming if they're also Asst. GMs

jaymoff (Salem, OR): If you were running the Tampa Bay (Devil) Ray ship how would the next 1-3 years shake out? They have so many young studs up now plus many more in the minors. This would certainly take a long time to answer in order to cover all the angles, but what would be the Cliff Notes version of your explanation?

Kevin Goldstein: 1. Spend $0 on free agents2. Use 2008 to evaluate young offensive talent and decide which you want to give pre-arb extensions too.3. Look at all young arms and evaluate for 2009 roles.4. Compete in 2009, be even better in 2010.

Justin (Brno, Czech Republic): Hi Kevin, appreciate your work. I have a theoretical question. Should the Pirates sell high and trade Snell and/or Gorzelany? If they did could they get a good prospect say like Evan Longoria from tampa bay?

Kevin Goldstein: No, and no.

JW: Is that guy high? Snell and/or Gorz for Longo? I wouldn't take the entire Pirates team for Longo.

Jules (TheStatPack): What do you see Longoria doing in the AFL? And What are your expectations for Halo 3?

Kevin Goldstein: I see him continuing to perform at a very high level, lining up for a 2008 rookie year. I'm a Playstation guy, as I tend to strongly prefer games developed in Japan. I'm sure Halo 3 is great and all, but FPS games just ain't my thing.

Jules (TheStatPack): Do you have a personal blog? Or do you just write for BP?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't, but I might -- I've thought about it in the past.

We'd love to get him on as a guest blogger.

JW: I asked this one as Matt Holliday:

Matt Holliday (Coors): Why am I naturally bald at 27?

Kevin Goldstein: Um, because that's life? I went to high school with a kid that was already going bald, and if any of you have ever been to a BP event or seen me elsewhere, you'd know that I'm hardly an expert in having a lot of hair.
That's all from KG. On to Will Carroll and John Perrotto.


Tommy (ChaimBloomsOffice): What are we gonna do with Elijah Dukes?

Will Carroll: Let him play Winter Ball, make him prove himself at every step, and see if Dukes can bring his career around, Josh Hamilton style.

Oh and while Jim Callis is claiming the Devil Rays bandwagon, I've been on it for perhaps longer than I should have been: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2703

JW: See what I started?

Tommy (TheStatPack): Does Rocco Baldelli play 100 Games next year?

Will Carroll: Do rehab games count?

TheStatPack (St. Pete): Who's more bald? or is it balder? You or KG?

Will Carroll: I think I shave it down further, since I am a straight razor guy.

Matt Holliday (Colorado): Why am I naturally bald at 27? When did you start?

Will Carroll: Because it looks good? Early 20s.

JW: That was me as Matt "The Snowman" Holliday again.

Tommy (TheStatPack): There always talk about Mcgee/Davis/Niemann, but what do you think about some of the Rays other arms like Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Mason, & Heath Rollins?

John Perrotto: Hellickson is the guy I hear good things about. Some scouts think he has a chance to be a pitcher at or near the of the rotation.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Who would you rather have the Yanks trio of Kennedy/Joba/Hughes or the Rays trio of Kazmir/Shields/And insert one of the following Mcgee/Davis/Price/Niemann

John Perrotto: At this point in time, Kazmier/Shields/whoever because they have proven they can pitch effectively at the major-league level. I really believe Kazmir and Shields can become one of the best 1-2 combos in the game very soon.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Where do you see Ryan Braun playing 3B or LF?

John Perrotto: I think eventually left field. He is shaky at third, to say the least, but, boy, you have to love his bat. He's something special offensively.

Tommy (TheStatPack): I agree Im in awe of Braun at the plate but doesn't he need a cool nickname.

John Perrotto: Yes, he does. Any suggestions?

Tommy (TheStatPack): The Lumberjack?

John Perrotto: Eh. I don't know. He went to the University of Miami, so Lumberjack just doesn't jibe there.

Jules (TheStatPack): How about Ryan "The Human Overthrow" Braun?

John Perrotto: Now, now, be nice.

John Perrotto: Well, thanks for all the questions I am so very looking forward to covering the ALCS for all the great BP readers. It should be a blast. And keep thinking up Ryan Braun nicknames.

ndubby (yay area): Tampa Bay is the only recent expansion team to not sniff the playoffs because a) they're in the AL, b) they're in the AL East, or c) they were run by Chuck Lamarr.

John Perrotto: B and C, though a lot of the young talent there now is courtesy of Chuck LaMar. Though he justifiably took his share of hits, he did bring in some pretty impressive young talent.

I thought that question was intersting and the answer was better. I'd like to see what RJ Anderson over at www.draysbay.com thinks of it.


For our NFL part Here are a few questions for ESPN's Chris Mortensen & Mel Kiper Jr. Also emailed NFL Injury Question with Sports Illustraded & BP's own Will Carroll

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey Mort any truth to Larry Fitzgerald to Dallas
rumors? Do you see anyone being moved before the deadline?

Chris Mortensen:(11:30 AM ET ) I haven't heard those rumors. The Cowboys do have two first-round draft picks and it's hard for me to fathom the Cardinals trading Fitzgerald when they are clearly in the hunt for the NFC West.
Now, if it included one of the receivers that former Cowboys receivers
coach Todd Haley likes (Haley is now on Arizona staff), plus a first
rounder, then that sounds like fun...mostly, it sounds like fun rumor stuff.

Did we just beat Chris Mortensen to a scoop?

Tommy(TheStatPack): I believe the Saints are better then what they've shown. So out of the other Winless teams who has the bigger chance to go
0-16 Rams or Dolphins

Chris Mortensen:(12:16 PM ET ) Nobody is going 16-0 or 0-16.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey Mel what are Matt Grothe's prospects for the NFL. He's like a shorter version of Tim Tebow

Mel Kiper: (1:09PM ET ) He's what he is; a very smart, intuitive QB. He has that 'it'factor as a college QB. He's got great toughness and leadership, and he makes plays. He delivers in the clutch a lot, but he's only about 6 feet,
205 pounds. He's only a sophomore, and I don't think he'll be an elite NFL
QB because of his size, and he doesn't have the great arm.

This is from an E-mail that Tommy sent to Will Carroll:

Hey Will,

Its rare fort an NFL QB's have TJ surgery, have there been any other cases
you know of? And 2nd question do you think Delhomme can make a full
recovery and come back just as strong if not stronger like a pitcher?

Will's Response: Rob Johnson's the one I can come up with. No reason to think he can't come back, though I'm dubious of the timeframe that the Panthers are throwing up there.

On to the NBA/Seinfeld Hour with David Thorpe

Tommy(TheStatPack): Does Penny have any gas left in the tank?

David Thorpe:(12:22 PM ET ) Not enough, I'm afraid.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Which Florida Gator makes the biggest impact for his team this season?

David Thorpe:(12:18 PM ET ) The odds say Big Al, but Noah and Brewer will make an impact too.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Better Seinfeld episode...Soup Nazi or The Contest?

David Thorpe:(12:24 PM ET ) I prefer the Menage episode, written by my friend Sam Kass.


That's all for the chats this week folks, be sure to tune in next week. Same Stat time, same Stat channel.