Special Interview with Will Carroll

We here at The Stat Pack are pleased to bring you another exclusive interview with another fantastic baseball writer. You may know Will Carroll from his time at ESPN or, more importantly, his Under The Knife column at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ . Will was kind enough to answer a few of our questions in a piece that we don't have a name for yet but we'll call it The Stat Pack 20.

TSP: Your father was in the Sports Medicine field so you've been around it your whole life. At what age did you decide that this field is what you wanted to do or was their ever really a question?

Will Carroll: I dabbled in the field, learning just enough to ... go another direction. Of course, that direction changed a lot, from working in finance and acquisition to insurance consulting, before becoming a professional writer. I understand the mindset in the training room and on the sideline, which helps me talk to the medical staffs in their 'own language.' That's the big advantage I had at first, but now that I've built up relationships, they know that I'll get the story right.

TSP: Has a team ever offered you a position on its medical staff?

Will Carroll:Yes.

TSP: If so, why did you turn it down? Would you be interested in a role like that in the future?

Will Carroll: I've worked in consulting roles, but I'm not a doctor nor an Athletic Trainer. I wouldn't want to nor would I be qualified to tell any of those hard-working, well-trained professionals what to do. What I can do is offer suggestions and give an outsiders look at what they do.

TSP: Everybody points the finger at Barry Bonds as the poster child for steroids. However, most of the suspensions so far have been pitchers. Why does a guy like Roger Clemens essentially get a pass when all signs so far point to pitchers using steroids more then hitters?

Will Carroll: Good question. I think we need a villain, a role Bonds fills nicely. What seems to hurt more is when a "hero" is knocked down, such as a Clemens, a McGwire, or a Palmeiro. No one even wants to think about a player like Clemens or Ripken.

TSP: The NFL suspends players regularly for violating the substance abuse policy. Rarely do we hear this happen is baseball, even though Rays OF Elijah Dukes has admitted in court that he used marijuana regularly. Does the MLB not care about illegal drug use?

Will Carroll: Good lord no. Dukes was suspended and we've seen Jeremy Jeffress get suspended for marijuana use for a second time, putting the Brewers' prospect's career in jeopardy. MLB takes this very seriously, but does a great job using the EAP programs around the league to handle them. The NFL's just better at PR.

TSP: Sort of a follow up to the last question. Steroids in baseball is considered like the end all be all but, in the NFL you get your 4 game suspension and then everything goes back to normal. Why’s there such a difference is philosophy between the 2 leagues? Is it because MLB records are more sacred then the NFL?

Will Carroll:Public relations and perception. Someone should write a book about this.

TSP:How would you rate the Rays Staff and Medical Facilities?

Will Carroll:Top notch on staff. What the team has built up with Ken Crenshaw has been carried on by Ron Porterfield. It's one of the big advantages the team has. While some might point to Rocco Baldelli, I'll put keeping Kazmir healthy as a tougher task and one that many teams would have failed at. I can't comment on the facilities -- as odd as this sounds, I've never been able to get a press pass for the Rays games.

TSP:The Rays have done an exceptional job of keeping their young arms healthy. What do they do better than other teams and how much of it is just pure luck?

Will Carroll:There's not much luck, especially over the long haul. The Rays have made a commitment to the medical staff from top to bottom in the organization, something that started in the Naimoli era and continues today. They have a plan that's supported by everyone in the organization and great people working together to carry it out.

TSP:You recently took a question in a chat about Scott Kazmir & Pitch counts. How do you feel the Rays have handled their young pitchers at the Major League level? Are they being too cautious or are their limitations justified?

Will Carroll:Absent a logical development plan, they've been about as good as anyone. You could ping them for being slightly cautious, but I'll take that over the alternative.

TSP: Which is better for a player to compete on; natural grass or field turf? Are there more injuries on one than the other?

Will Carroll:There's definitely more injuries on turf. Even the best turf has a higher injury rate.

TSP: Besides Jeff Niemann, which young Rays Pitcher has the biggest risk of injury?

Will Carroll:Wade Townsend has a similar injury history without the same upside, but the one that I'd say is Kazmir. His mechanics and stubbornness to recognize that the limits have helped him rather than held him back really worry me. He's just so talented.

TSP:Is it time to give up on Rocco Baldelli as an everyday player?

Will Carroll:No, but it's close. I think there's still the chance to get him back to some level, but they need to make their last, best effort now.

TSP:What is the key to guys like Tim Wakefield & Greg Maddux avoiding major injuries throughout their major league careers?

Will Carroll:The knuckleball? I'm not sure we can draw any lesson from Wakefield , but Maddux is a combination of great mechanics, smart pitching, efficiency, and a continual focus on the craft of pitching. There's not many that can do what he does. No one would look at Maddux or his stuff and compare him to Clemens, Johnson, or Schilling, yet there he is.

TSP:Do people still use the Pitcher Abuse Point System as a way to measure wear & tear on a pitcher?

Will Carroll:Absolutely. It's the best available proxy. I'm working on a research project now that might give us a closer, game-to-game proxy, but until we can do needle biopsies or get the results of functional strength testing made public, PAP is the best system.

TSP:Why do you think it isn't talked about more? If not why did it fail as a measurement of abuse on a pitcher's arm?

Will Carroll:I'm not sure any statistical tool has ever had more of an effect on the game than PAP. If you look at the usage stats, we just don't have high PAP starts any more because it measured it so well and pointed it out to the general public. Now, it's likely something of an overreaction - some pitchers could go further and throw more, just as some could get more efficient and go deeper into games on the same pitch count.

TSP:Has Microfracture surgery become to the NBA what Tommy John is to the MLB & ACL is to the NFL?

Will Carroll:Nooooooo. Microfracture doesn't have near the success rate, but it's far newer and is getting better.

TSP:It’s been 4 years since you and Derek Zumsteg wrote the "Pete Rose Article". Do you still stand behind it till this day as being correct?

Will Carroll:Absolutely. Rose himself has been quoted as saying he had a deal.

TSP: I know you were working on novel a while back, are we going to see the finished product?

Will Carroll:Someday. It's one of those things on my "someday list"; I have a couple books in the works now.

TSP:Do you have any Sports related books on the horizon?

Will Carroll:Yes, one that hopefully will involve the Rays, but getting all the ducks lined up has been a bit more difficult than I anticipated. Nothing before 2009 as far as "on the shelf" is concerned.

TSP:And the get away question....Once and for all who is the founder of the Rays Bandwagon you or Jim Callis?

Will Carroll:You know, Jim was one of the original three people that I sent a copy of UTK to back in 2002. We've played in a retro league for years. I think we can share that

Thanks Will. Be sure to check out all of Will's work at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/

Weekly Chats

It's that time of the week, Chat Day here at The Stat Pack. We have started to branch out into the other sports a little more since the NFL is in full swing and NBA is about to start up. Oh and by the way we've busted out the big names...Chris Mortensen, Mel Kiper Jr, Jim Callis, Will Carroll etc...

We'll start out with Jim Callis of Baseball America, he seems to be our biggest fan. Then we'll move to John Perrotto & Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, Lots of good stuff there. Besides our typical Rays talk we branched out to some other things. Tommy tried to start a nickname Ryan Braun Campaign with Perrotto that included Back 2 Back Chat posts By Tommy & Jules; very Big Papi & ManRam-like. Jules may have started a possible war with Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus on who really started the Rays World Series Bandwagon...Enjoy

We're going to start including questions/statements from other chatters that are Rays-centric.

Jules (TheStatPack): I think the guys at BP are taking the reins of the Rays Bandwagon from you. You gonna step it up Jim?

Jim: I built that bandwagon! They can not take the reins! Come on! Back in our season preview, I had the Rays making the playoffs in 2010. I defy BP to show earlier support, so I will not relinquish the reins!

JW: People start asking him '10 Rays questions after I questioned his commitment.

Brad (Gadsden,Alabama): Is the David Price going to be the rays #1 starter when they go to the playoffs in 2010?

Jim: Yes.

PJ (Agawam MA): Are the Rays the East champ in 2010 or the wild card?

Jim: I had them as the East champs . . . and beating the Dodgers in the World Series.

Rob (ct): Best farm system in the AL east?

Jim: Devil Rays.

JW: That one was easy

Morgan (Newport Beach, CA): Brandon Wood or Evan Longoria

Jim: Longoria.

That's it for the Baseball America portion. On to Baseball Prospectus.

First up is the Tuesday chat with Kevin Goldstein.

userlock (NC): If Brignac has a good showing in the AFL, how much does he improve his stock? A Triple-A start with a look in september maybe?

Kevin Goldstein: I think that's Brignac's schedule as-is, even before the AFL season begins. I'm not sure how a big month in Arizona would change that too much.

Upton Fan (Tampa): Joe Sheehan and Will Carrol were talkin on fantasy 411 about Ian Stewart taking over at third sooner rather than later. Did I miss something good in his development? Or should I call and straighten them out about his future with the Rocks?

Kevin Goldstein: I'm just not buying it, but I think I'm also way further down than most are on him. He's just not that good. He's never been more than alright since his huge Sally League season -- and that's pretty much ancient history at this point. Decent third-base prospect, but no more.

Why'd that guy post as Upton Fan(Tampa) then ask a Rockies question?

JW: This question isn't Rays related or funny in any way, I just thought it was very interesting.

Scott (Chicago): How much do scouts make? From the 30 year scouts to the guys who have yet to make any organizational impact.

Kevin Goldstein: The job starts at about 30K/year with 200+ days a year of travel. A bigtime experienced area scout with an important region -- like SoCal or Texas or part of Florida is probably up to maybe 50-60K. Once you get into the cross-checkers and supervisors you move up a little more, and scouting directors get into the six-figures -- with more coming if they're also Asst. GMs

jaymoff (Salem, OR): If you were running the Tampa Bay (Devil) Ray ship how would the next 1-3 years shake out? They have so many young studs up now plus many more in the minors. This would certainly take a long time to answer in order to cover all the angles, but what would be the Cliff Notes version of your explanation?

Kevin Goldstein: 1. Spend $0 on free agents2. Use 2008 to evaluate young offensive talent and decide which you want to give pre-arb extensions too.3. Look at all young arms and evaluate for 2009 roles.4. Compete in 2009, be even better in 2010.

Justin (Brno, Czech Republic): Hi Kevin, appreciate your work. I have a theoretical question. Should the Pirates sell high and trade Snell and/or Gorzelany? If they did could they get a good prospect say like Evan Longoria from tampa bay?

Kevin Goldstein: No, and no.

JW: Is that guy high? Snell and/or Gorz for Longo? I wouldn't take the entire Pirates team for Longo.

Jules (TheStatPack): What do you see Longoria doing in the AFL? And What are your expectations for Halo 3?

Kevin Goldstein: I see him continuing to perform at a very high level, lining up for a 2008 rookie year. I'm a Playstation guy, as I tend to strongly prefer games developed in Japan. I'm sure Halo 3 is great and all, but FPS games just ain't my thing.

Jules (TheStatPack): Do you have a personal blog? Or do you just write for BP?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't, but I might -- I've thought about it in the past.

We'd love to get him on as a guest blogger.

JW: I asked this one as Matt Holliday:

Matt Holliday (Coors): Why am I naturally bald at 27?

Kevin Goldstein: Um, because that's life? I went to high school with a kid that was already going bald, and if any of you have ever been to a BP event or seen me elsewhere, you'd know that I'm hardly an expert in having a lot of hair.
That's all from KG. On to Will Carroll and John Perrotto.


Tommy (ChaimBloomsOffice): What are we gonna do with Elijah Dukes?

Will Carroll: Let him play Winter Ball, make him prove himself at every step, and see if Dukes can bring his career around, Josh Hamilton style.

Oh and while Jim Callis is claiming the Devil Rays bandwagon, I've been on it for perhaps longer than I should have been: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2703

JW: See what I started?

Tommy (TheStatPack): Does Rocco Baldelli play 100 Games next year?

Will Carroll: Do rehab games count?

TheStatPack (St. Pete): Who's more bald? or is it balder? You or KG?

Will Carroll: I think I shave it down further, since I am a straight razor guy.

Matt Holliday (Colorado): Why am I naturally bald at 27? When did you start?

Will Carroll: Because it looks good? Early 20s.

JW: That was me as Matt "The Snowman" Holliday again.

Tommy (TheStatPack): There always talk about Mcgee/Davis/Niemann, but what do you think about some of the Rays other arms like Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Mason, & Heath Rollins?

John Perrotto: Hellickson is the guy I hear good things about. Some scouts think he has a chance to be a pitcher at or near the of the rotation.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Who would you rather have the Yanks trio of Kennedy/Joba/Hughes or the Rays trio of Kazmir/Shields/And insert one of the following Mcgee/Davis/Price/Niemann

John Perrotto: At this point in time, Kazmier/Shields/whoever because they have proven they can pitch effectively at the major-league level. I really believe Kazmir and Shields can become one of the best 1-2 combos in the game very soon.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Where do you see Ryan Braun playing 3B or LF?

John Perrotto: I think eventually left field. He is shaky at third, to say the least, but, boy, you have to love his bat. He's something special offensively.

Tommy (TheStatPack): I agree Im in awe of Braun at the plate but doesn't he need a cool nickname.

John Perrotto: Yes, he does. Any suggestions?

Tommy (TheStatPack): The Lumberjack?

John Perrotto: Eh. I don't know. He went to the University of Miami, so Lumberjack just doesn't jibe there.

Jules (TheStatPack): How about Ryan "The Human Overthrow" Braun?

John Perrotto: Now, now, be nice.

John Perrotto: Well, thanks for all the questions I am so very looking forward to covering the ALCS for all the great BP readers. It should be a blast. And keep thinking up Ryan Braun nicknames.

ndubby (yay area): Tampa Bay is the only recent expansion team to not sniff the playoffs because a) they're in the AL, b) they're in the AL East, or c) they were run by Chuck Lamarr.

John Perrotto: B and C, though a lot of the young talent there now is courtesy of Chuck LaMar. Though he justifiably took his share of hits, he did bring in some pretty impressive young talent.

I thought that question was intersting and the answer was better. I'd like to see what RJ Anderson over at www.draysbay.com thinks of it.


For our NFL part Here are a few questions for ESPN's Chris Mortensen & Mel Kiper Jr. Also emailed NFL Injury Question with Sports Illustraded & BP's own Will Carroll

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey Mort any truth to Larry Fitzgerald to Dallas
rumors? Do you see anyone being moved before the deadline?

Chris Mortensen:(11:30 AM ET ) I haven't heard those rumors. The Cowboys do have two first-round draft picks and it's hard for me to fathom the Cardinals trading Fitzgerald when they are clearly in the hunt for the NFC West.
Now, if it included one of the receivers that former Cowboys receivers
coach Todd Haley likes (Haley is now on Arizona staff), plus a first
rounder, then that sounds like fun...mostly, it sounds like fun rumor stuff.

Did we just beat Chris Mortensen to a scoop?

Tommy(TheStatPack): I believe the Saints are better then what they've shown. So out of the other Winless teams who has the bigger chance to go
0-16 Rams or Dolphins

Chris Mortensen:(12:16 PM ET ) Nobody is going 16-0 or 0-16.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey Mel what are Matt Grothe's prospects for the NFL. He's like a shorter version of Tim Tebow

Mel Kiper: (1:09PM ET ) He's what he is; a very smart, intuitive QB. He has that 'it'factor as a college QB. He's got great toughness and leadership, and he makes plays. He delivers in the clutch a lot, but he's only about 6 feet,
205 pounds. He's only a sophomore, and I don't think he'll be an elite NFL
QB because of his size, and he doesn't have the great arm.

This is from an E-mail that Tommy sent to Will Carroll:

Hey Will,

Its rare fort an NFL QB's have TJ surgery, have there been any other cases
you know of? And 2nd question do you think Delhomme can make a full
recovery and come back just as strong if not stronger like a pitcher?

Will's Response: Rob Johnson's the one I can come up with. No reason to think he can't come back, though I'm dubious of the timeframe that the Panthers are throwing up there.

On to the NBA/Seinfeld Hour with David Thorpe

Tommy(TheStatPack): Does Penny have any gas left in the tank?

David Thorpe:(12:22 PM ET ) Not enough, I'm afraid.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Which Florida Gator makes the biggest impact for his team this season?

David Thorpe:(12:18 PM ET ) The odds say Big Al, but Noah and Brewer will make an impact too.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Better Seinfeld episode...Soup Nazi or The Contest?

David Thorpe:(12:24 PM ET ) I prefer the Menage episode, written by my friend Sam Kass.


That's all for the chats this week folks, be sure to tune in next week. Same Stat time, same Stat channel.

Hot Wives

During Will Carroll's recent chat over at BP I asked him who he thought had the hottest wife in baseball...here is what Will said

Tommy (The Trop): Podsednik's wife hottest in baseball?

Will Carroll: My hotness standards have become really skewed over the last year, but I'd say no. Aaron Boone still considered "in baseball?"

As for the rest of sports Im going with UF Quarterback Tim Tebow's unconfirmed "girlfriend"















Or Maybe Adam Archuleta's wife