Top 100 Prospects of 2008 from Scouts Inc. & Baseball Prospectus analyzed

As promised, here is a more in depth look at the Top 100 Lists of ESPN/Scouts Inc. and Baseball Prospectus. Of course I will start off with the Rays list. Nine Rays made the Top 100 on Scouts Inc. highlighted by: Evan Longoria(1), Desmond Jennings(11), Wade Davis(15), David Price(16) and Jake McGee(26), giving the Rays five out of the top 26 prospects. Rounding out the nine Rays were Reid Brignac (49), Fernando Perez (72), Jeremy Hellickson (75), and John Jaso (78). Not too much to argue with here besides maybe Reid Brignac. Last year's consensus best SS in the minor leagues takes a bit of a hit this year, falling behind Carlos Triunfel (18, Mariners), Elvis Andrus(31, Rangers), and Mike Moustakas (47, Royals). Brignac did take a step back last year offensively, .260/.328/.433, but from most accounts made strides defensively towards becoming a Major League defender as SS. This season will no doubt be a huge year for Brignac, not only to prove his '07 season was a one year slide, but also the addition of Jason Barlett means the Rays now have a legit option at SS for the future besides Brignac. With the lack of a RF prospect one interesting idea would be, if his defense regresses, to move Brignac to Right, where the Rays plan to platoon players this year. Other than that I really don't have many Rays related gripes with Scouts Inc.'s list.

Now on to Baseball Prospectus list of Rays. Again the Rays had a heavy presence at the top, with five of the top 25 prospects headlined by: Evan Longoria (3), David Price (6), Wade Davis (15), Desmond Jennings (18), and Reid Brignac (25). The only other Ray on the top 100 was Jake McGee (40). Obviously there are some discrepancies between the two lists. The most prevalent, in my opinion, is the number of Rays. Scouts Inc. lists nine, but Baseball Prospectus only lists six. Baseball Prospectus completely left off Jeremy Hellickson, Fernando Perez, and John Jaso. I can't understand why. Perez & Jaso should see a lot of action at AAA Durham this year and maybe even get a taste of the big leagues come September. In our recent interview Jim Callis , he said that John Jaso has a chance to be the everyday catcher for the Rays if he can stay healthy. Fernando Perez has an outside chance to crack the Majors this year as the fourth outfielder. If something should happen to Baldelli or Floyd, or most likely both, he could see significant time in a talented Rays outfield. Jeremy Hellickson is still probably two years away and most likely will spend the bulk of his season at High Class A Vero Beach, but he is leader of the next group of arms behind the more advanced Price, McGee, Davis, Niemann, and Talbot.

The rest of the BP Rays list is interesting. Evan Longoria is ranked 3rd behind Jay Bruce (1) and Clay Buchholz (2). I have no problem with Bruce being first. Most people have Bruce and Longoria 1st and 2nd in either order. However, I think this is the first time I've seen Buchholz ranked not only over Longoria, but also Joba Chamberlain who checked in the list at four. I think of it this way, who would I rather have to start a franchise Buchholz or Longoria? I'm taking Longoria all day. I believe the comparisons to David Wright are not only flattering, but very true. If the comparison does pan out then Longoria will be a perennial All Star and MVP candidate. I can't really argue with Desmond Jennings at 18 or Davis at 15. I believe Desmond Jennings is a potential impact player, but I'll see how he does at High A or Double A first before arguing for him to be higher on the list. Davis at 15 is fine and I expect him to be Top 5 or 10 at the least next year. I was very surprised to see Price ranked as high as 6 since he hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet. I've heard all types of projections on Price. One projection early on had him coming in this spring with a chance at the Majors, but most expect him to start at AA Montgomery and quickly rise to the Majors as soon as late August or early September.

The final two on the Baseball Prospectus list are Reid Brignac and Jake McGee. At number 25, Reid Brignac is the second SS on the list behind Moustakas, who most believe is likely not going to be a SS long. The other two SS that were in front of Reid on the Scouts Inc. list, Triunfel and Andrus, check in considerably lower on this list at 55 and 58 respectively. I guess it’s who you ask about Reid Brignac, as there seems to be no consensus to where he belongs. The final Ray on the list is Jake McGee, checking in at 40. The knock on McGee is his lack of a secondary out pitch behind his fastball. I'm interested to see how he progresses this year, where he likely will spend a lot of time at AA Montgomery. If he can develop another one or two above average pitches to round out his arsenal he should be a serious candidate for the top 10 next year. If not, all is not lost with McGee as the Rays maybe able to convert him into a dominate late inning reliever.

That's it for the Rays portion of the lists. I have just a few tidbits on the other names on the two lists. First, Lars Anderson 1B for the Red Sox. Scouts Inc. has him solidly in the top half of their list at 28, while he barely made the Baseball Prospectus list coming in at 100. Again, referring back to our interview with Baseball America's Jim Callis he says, "I think Red Sox first baseman Lars Anderson is going to make a leap forward this year and become recognized as one of the very best hitters in the minors." Like Reid Brignac, I guess it's all about who you ask with Anderson.

Two other names I wanted to look at because of the recent Johan Santana trade were OF's Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez. Gomez is the center piece of the deal and is regarded as the Twins CF of the future if the deal is completed. On Scouts Inc, Gomez checks in at 35, but on BP he's in the lower half at 65. Either way, I feel that Gomez as the center piece is way too low for the greatest pitcher on the face of the planet. The other player in the talks surrounding the trade was Fernando Martinez. Martinez is regarded by most, if not all, as the #1 prospect in the Mets system. The big gripe from the Twins supporters was they traded Santana without getting the Mets crown jewel in return. Scouts Inc. has Martinez at 10 while Baseball Prospectus has him just in the lower half at 51. That’s a pretty big difference. Is he a top 10 player or a barely a top 50 player? Martinez has huge power potential and is an above average defender in CF. He started last season at AA Binghamton at age 18....yes I said 18. An injury cut his season short, but even at age 19 in AA he is on the fact track to the Majors, and a big kudos to Omar Minaya for being able to land Santana (potentially) without giving up his blue chipper.


Ok my fingers have officially cramped up and my eyes are bleeding, but there you have our recap of the Top 100 list of Scouts Inc. and Baseball Prospectus. Of course, each writer and analyst has their own criteria and their own judgments, so no list is perfect. Remember, the Rays own Edwin Jackson was once one of the top prospects in baseball and we're still waiting on him to show that he's even an average starter. We respect Keith Law(Scouts Inc.) and Kevin Goldstein(Baseball Prospectus) tremendously and it will be fun to check up on this list in the next few years to see who's made it, who was a bust and who came out of nowhere to became a star. We expect to have another list from Baseball America soon, so I need to recover so we can do this all over again soon.

The Stat Pack 20: Exclusive Interview with Jonah Keri

Welcome to another edition of The Stat Pack 20. Actually this time is more like The Stat Pack 20+ which is a good thing. This edition features an exclusive interview with Jonah Keri. If you don't know who Jonah is then you probably live under a rock and/or don't pay attention to excellent writing.

Jonah Keri is a writer for ESPN.com and a contributor to multiple other publications, including Investor's Business Daily, the New York Times, the New York Sun, YESNetwork.com and Salon.com. He's also the editor and co-author of "Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong". Jonah has also joined Tom Tango, Craig Burley, John Brattain in a blog to spread the word to the media on Tim Raines' worthiness as a HoF candidate. Please visit http://www.raines30.com/ and help the cause.

Recently we had the privilege to sit down with Jonah Keri to talk about The Rays, Wall street, Final four and the MLB in general. Enjoy

TSP: Obviously we are dedicated Rays fans, as an Expos fan you can share our pain. What are your expectations of the Rays in the next couple of years?

JK: If by "couple", you mean "two", I think by the end of 2009, this team should start to resemble a contender. By then you'll have Evan Longoria starting at 3B, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton hitting the middle of the lineup, and a solid supporting cast. David Price will probably be in the rotation with Matt Garza, James Shields and Jacob McGee (I'm guessing the team will have traded Scott Kazmir by then, or in the 2009-2010 off-season). There's a solid core of talent here, and the next couple years should see the Rays' minor league talent bearing fruit too.

TSP: What are some writers thinking when voting for MVP? Chone Figgans and Frank Thomas received votes in the AL , yet some writers left Carlos Pena completely off the ballot. Where do you think Pena should have finished in the vote?

JK: I'd have put Pena in my top 10 if I had a vote, but not top 5. He had a terrific offensive season, but A-Rod, Magglio Ordonez and David Ortiz did more offensively, and Ichiro, Jorge Posada and Curtis Granderson produced more overall value than Pena given the positions they play--you could make a case for Victor Martinez over Pena too, and I say that as a big Pena fan.

TSP: Scott Boras said Carlos Pena is a $15 million dollar a year player. You've followed Pena throughout his career, do you think this season was a fluke?

JK: Scott Boras would call me a $10 million dollar a year player, and I played one year of Little League (poorly) before giving it up for basketball. I don't think Pena's 2007 was a fluke, but I also think it will end up being the best year of his career. There's no shame in that: If he settles in as a .270/.380/.540 player, for what they paid to get him, I'm sure everyone will be very happy.

TSP: Can you see a scenario where a player like Pena can sign a long term deal with the Rays with Boras as his agent? Or will Boras push him out of their market?

JK: I asked Matt Silverman and Andrew Friedman a similar question. They said they weren't too concerned about it for the time being, since Pena is under team control for the next couple seasons regardless. If I were a Rays fan, I'd hope they don't sign him to a big, long-term deal. Pena turns 30 in May, and the list of long-term contracts for slugging first baseman over 30 that backfired is a mile long: Jason Giambi, Jeff Bagwell, Mo Vaughn...the list goes on and on.

TSP: A few of us at The Stat Pack recently read Ben Mezrich's new book, "Rigged", about the NYMEX. Is it really that crazy & hectic? The book makes it sound relatively easy; are guys really making hundreds of thousands a day moving oil without degrees and financial backgrounds?

JK: When I talk to mutual fund managers, many of them are extremely bullish over the exchanges as stock buys: Nasdaq (NDAQ), IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)--NYMEX is the same idea. It doesn't matter if we're in a bull or bear market for stocks or commodities. These guys are just middlemen, so as long as institutions keep placing buy and sell orders, they can reap profits. Whether or not they have degrees with financial backgrounds, I have no idea.

TSP: You made the transition from Wall Street to Sports. Most of the Rays top executives like Stu Sternberg, Matt Silverman and Andy Friedman have made similar moves. How much of an impact, if any, does that have on them when it comes to spending money and deciding to pull the trigger on certain moves?

JK: I actually still write about the stock market--I've been doing both for nearly six years now. As far as Silverman and Friedman are concerned, that's another thing they talked about in our Q&A. The two of them feel they benefit in a way from coming in as outsiders, in that they don't have the same biases and preconceived notions that can come back to bite teams who rely on baseball lifers who lack an open mind.

TSP: Recently we've spoken to you about your views on the Rays plans for a waterfront stadium. You said you're all for it, but at the same time you agree with Rob Neyer's view about the stadium being publicly funded. Given the details that we have about the situation right now do you think a deal will get done? And what would it mean for the franchise if they cannot get the stadium?

JK: It depends entirely on whether the city votes in favor of the redevelopment plans on the Tropicana Field and Al Lang Field sites. If the vote doesn't pass come November, there's no deal, and it's tough to predict public sentiment, especially this far in advance. It's a potentially exciting deal, though. I've been to every big league ballpark but one (Minnesota), and AT&T Park is easily in my top three--the Rays are talking about building a park with a similar setting, but on a smaller footprint, which could be great. If they don't get the deal done this time, they can always go at it from another angle down the road. It took a bunch of different proposals before the Nats finally built their stadium where they did, for instance.

TSP: Andrew Friedman recently said nobody on the Rays is untouchable. What do you think about the recent rumors of the Rays moving Carl Crawford and Scott Kazmir? Isn't it too early to move those players when most people believe the Rays can contend in the next 2-3 years?

JK: The Kazmir rumors were a case of the Rays saying they'd listen to offers, and the New York media construing that to mean he was on his way to the Mets for a box of Ruben Gotay and a box of Cracker Jack. As for Crawford, the team has him signed to a very favorable contract, so I'd be surprised if they dealt him for anything short of a king's ransom. Friedman has said that no one's untouchable, though, and I like that. Sure, in a perfect world you keep Kazmir, Crawford and everyone else for years to come. But if the right offer comes around, you always have to consider it.

TSP: If the Rays were to win the World Series in 2010, do you see a potential Marlin like fire-sale situation where they could move key players like Crawford, Kazmir, etc in order to get younger cheaper players?

JK: Way, way too early to speculate in these terms. I also don't buy the idea that trading expensive players for cheaper players necessarily constitutes a firesale. After the Marlins won the '97 World Series, yes, that was a firesale. But trading free agents-to-be, making eight figures, for talented, young players with 0-3 years of service time can be a great move in the right context, whether you're the Rays or the Yankees.

TSP: You've said before you think a team can be effective with a 4-Man rotation, using a spot starter once in a while. Do you think that can realistically work over a 162 game season?

JK: It can work, but I don't see it ever happening. The best way for it to work would be to find four very good, pitch-efficient pitchers. Of course there are very few teams that can afford four Greg Madduxes in their prime. And those teams would never stake their reputation and all the money they spent on a four-man rotation.

TSP: In the last decade under the "Steroid Era" Baseball has seen an increase in attendance from 62 million a year to nearly 80 million. Revenue is at a record high 6.075 Billion. How is that a bad thing for business?

JK: Baseball players use performance-enhancing drugs--shocker. So do football players, basketball players, and everyone else. I just can't excited about this story, other than to wonder why the Justice Department has to waste its time on Barry Bonds.

TSP: We are pro Barry Bonds here at The Stat Pack. In your opinion should Barry Bonds be in the Hall of Fame? And Will he ever make the Hall of Fame?

JK: Yes, Bonds should be in the Hall. I'd say there's a very strong chance he never gets in.

TSP: With all the record revenue, TV Contracts, merchandise and revenue sharing in Baseball, how can there still be "small market" teams?

JK: There always will be. Sure, the Rays and other lower-revenue teams share a decent slice of the pie. But compare the Yankees' revenue or the Red Sox's revenue with Tampa, Pittsburgh, Kansas City--they're worlds apart. That's why the Rays have to execute so perfectly--they're at a big financial disadvantage in the AL East.

TSP: We know the Players Association wouldn't ever go for it, but does baseball need a real salary cap like the other major sports?

JK: A salary cap is nothing more than a way for owners to put more money in their pockets. You can tweak the revenue sharing system to further level the playing field. Other than that, restricting players' earning power just makes billionaires richer.

TSP: What about having a salary floor like the NHL that prevents owners from just pocketing money?

JK: Teams should be free to spend whatever they want on payroll. Yes, it's a crying shame that someone like Carl Pohlad is one of the richest men in the world, yet gladly pockets tens of millions a year from revenue sharing, instead of investing in his team. But if MLB is truly committed to finding more ambitious owners, they need to do a better job of inducting new members into their club, instead of giving us giant, leeching wastes of space like Jeffrey Loria. As is, I'd say the Commissioner's office cares a lot more about finding owners who'll fall into line with MLB dogma, instead of recruiting outspoken and ambitious Mark Cuban types to take over franchises.

TSP: Joe Girardi has some very valuable young arms in NY. When he was with the Marlins, all five of his starters ranked in the top 115 in total PAP. Do you see that being a problem between Girardi and the NY Brass?

JK: I don't see that being a major problem. I'd also bet that the Yankees bring in a couple of veterans for their rotation, rather than relying on four young guys.

TSP: Over the last 5 years which GMs do you think have done the best job? The worst?

JK: I think it's a little too facile to give all the credit to the GMs, since it's always a team effort. As for organizations, I've been impressed with the jobs done by the Red Sox and Indians, more recently by the Diamondbacks and Rockies, and a bit before that by the Twins, Braves and A's.

TSP: With all the recent shuffling of GMs in baseball, be it firings, retirements etc, what advice would you give a new GM? What kind of skills does it take to maintain your job in this business?

JK: Win games. Seriously, it isn't any more complicated than that. Win games, and don't make the mistake of working in a town where Bill Plaschke and his ilk dump on you because you don't give good quotes. It's a fickle industry, and plenty of good people get fired for iffy reasons. But accountability is still king--teams that win tend to provide job security for the people that run them.

TSP: What do you think of Andrew Friedman's performance as a GM?

JK: Again, you have to assess the entire organization: Silverman, Feinstein, Hunsicker, Click, Bloom--you have to look at everyone involved in the decision-making process. Overall, though, I like what they've done. The Carlos Pena signing worked out great, the team stuck with B.j. Upton and was rewarded, I've liked what they've done in the draft, and I thought the Delmon Young trade was a very gutsy move, one that could really help the Rays (and the Twins too--the classic good trade for both teams).

TSP: Of course it's only almost the beginning of winter, but who do you have in the Final Four come March?

JK: I made my pre-season picks in print for the New York Sun, so I'm stuck with those four, for better or worse. UCLA, North Carolina, Tennessee and Marquette. It's wide open this year, though, I could name another half dozen teams who have a great shot at it. I'm looking forward to covering my first Final Four in San Antonio in April.

TSP: And finally, being the Expos fan you are, who would have won the 1994 World Series?

JK: Anything can happen in the playoffs--as we saw from the Cards in '06, the Marlins in '03, and in other cases, the best teams don't always win. All I know is the Expos would've been in the playoffs, which would have been a huge accomplishment in itself, considering it only happened one time in team history, and with a strike-related asterisk attached to it at that. I actually quit following baseball altogether when they wiped out the World Series, that's how upset I was with the whole thing. It took my then-girlfriend (now wife of 10 years) to convince me to stick with baseball for the long haul. She bought me a Felipe Alou rookie card, and I was hooked again. Too bad I no longer have a favorite team to root for.

The Stat Pack would like to thank Jonah Keri again for sitting down with us. And please support Tim Raines HoF candidacy at http://www.raines30.com/

Also check out this interview with Andrew Friedman and Matt Silverman by Jonah

Keri: Q&A with Matthew Silverman and Andrew Friedman

Weekly Chats

New Chat wrap feating J.A. Adande, Jim Callis, Steve Muench, Terry Blount, Chris Mortensen,Orestes Destrade, Rob Neyer, Marcellus Wiley & Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz

First Up J.A. Adande

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey J.A. whats going on in tennis? Gambling, Poison attempts, Cocaine, sounds like a crazy night at the lounge?

J.A. Adande: No sport -- NONE -- has as many wild storylines as tennis. All they need is a positive steroid test. But seriously, Poison????

Next some Rays & MLB with Destrade, Neyer & Callis

Tommy(TheStatPack):Hey Orestes, The Rays have been mentioned as players for Michael Barrett & Torrealba. With Posada now off the market are these 2 the best options available or should they give Navarro more time?

Orestes Destrade: It's a FA field full of catchers this yr. Those 2 prob the best. I like Barrett alot. LaDuca is out there, as is a sleeper in Jose Molina. Remember when nobody wanted Benji and he's had 2 great yrs. Jose is one to look at.

Tommy(TheStatPack):There could be FA's out there who could be named in the Mitchell Investigation and possibly face suspension Will teams be weary about who they sign this offseason?

Orestes Destrade: It's too late for that to be an issue. Owners, just as guilty, I feel and you can't punish the player and not the owners who knew all along. If someone screws up this season or found out for last...I penalize that guy for stupidity, ignorance and all out greed when word has been out strong!

Jules(TheStatPack): What do you think of the Rays plans for a new waterfront stadium?

Rob Neyer: I think I need to dig up the letter Vince Naimoli once sent me, arguing that Tropicana Field is the best ballpark in all the land.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Delmon Young or Pedroia?

Jim Callis: Pedroia deserved the AL rookie of the year award over Young, easily.

NASCAR W/Terry Blount

Tommy(TheStatPack): 30 minutes in and no mention of an international driver or danica?

Terry Blount: And what would a chat be without one mention of Danica. Thanks for bringing it up.

Tommy(TheStatPack): What happened to the 20? Last year he made a ton of noise during the chase and he didn't even qualify for it. This year he makes the chase and falls off

Terry Blount:) Tony never recovered with the deal at Kansas. He had it won when the rain came, wrecked when it restarted and never was a contender after that.

Tommy(TheStatPack): How long before the Danica to NASCAR discussions start? After she wins an Indy Car race?

Terry Blount: You got it. She has to win first, then it's off the big bucks of NASCAR.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Is there any current driver that would be a great crew cheif? Why aren't more former NASCAR drivers involved that way like other sports where alot of players become coaches?

Terry Blount:) If retired drivers say in it, they usually become team owners or broadcasters. Most drivers don't know enough on the technical side to become crew chiefs.

Tommy(TheStatPack): True. What about Steven Wallace's progress? Who will be in Nascar first him or the kid in the Geico commericals?

Terry Blount: The Geico kid will become an actor. Young Wallace is learning and getting better.

Tommy(TheStatPack): When are people going to stop referring to "he would have won it the old way."?

Terry Blount: Never. As long as there was an old system, people will compare the two.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Will the last race of the season stay in homestead?

Terry Blount: It will for next year. Who knows after that, but the final event is limited to warm-weather locations.

Tommy(TheStatPack): How jacked up on Mountain Dew AMP will the crowds be next year? Would it be better if they all just stuck to budweiser?

Terry Blount: At least this way it's better when they get in their cars after the race.

And finally NFL with Mort, Marcellus Wiley, Steve Muench & Aaron Schatz

Tommy(TheStatPack): Tank Johnson looked pretty good on Sunday. With Him now in the mix and Henry, Newman & Ellis healthy can we expect the Cowboys defense to really step it up?

Chris Mortensen: Well, it's a better defense but there will always be some pass coverage deficiencies. That's OK. The Patriots have some of those problems, too.

Tommy(TheStatPack): I know he wouldn't say it on Camera. But how proud of Tony Romo is Parcells?

Chris Mortensen: Very proud. And as we have talked about all the team wanting to press young QBs into action, I know Parcells is proud that he didn't rush Romo, that he let him learn the league, simmer and develop.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Julius Jones is a UFA and Marion Barber is a RFA. By the look of things Jones will be able to walk he hasn't done much this year to warrant the money he's going to be asking for. What will the Cowboys Running Back situation look like next year? Will they be looking a RB 1st day or Maybe go out and sign Michael Turner to complement MB3?

Aaron Schatz: Who says that Michael Turner will get a smaller contract than Julius Jones? Yes, I like the idea of getting a cheaper back to team with Barber and saving money. I doubt it will be Turner, who will get starter's money to go somewhere and start.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Who wins Columbia or Notre Dame if they played on a neutral site?

Marcellus Wiley: Football or spelling bee? In football I still would
say Notre Dame, but for me to even have to think of that, shame on you
Notre Dame. Go Lions!

Tommy(TheStatPack): What could the browns get for Brady Quinn?

Steve Muench: Great question. In my opinion, I would be surprised so see them get anything earlier than a third round pick. While I still think Quinn has what it takes to be a franchise quarterback, several teams passed on him in the draft so there are obvioulsy questions about his trade value. More importantly,he hasn't done anything since.

That's all for the chats this week folks, be sure to tune in next week. Same Stat time, same Stat channel.

Special Interview with Will Carroll

We here at The Stat Pack are pleased to bring you another exclusive interview with another fantastic baseball writer. You may know Will Carroll from his time at ESPN or, more importantly, his Under The Knife column at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ . Will was kind enough to answer a few of our questions in a piece that we don't have a name for yet but we'll call it The Stat Pack 20.

TSP: Your father was in the Sports Medicine field so you've been around it your whole life. At what age did you decide that this field is what you wanted to do or was their ever really a question?

Will Carroll: I dabbled in the field, learning just enough to ... go another direction. Of course, that direction changed a lot, from working in finance and acquisition to insurance consulting, before becoming a professional writer. I understand the mindset in the training room and on the sideline, which helps me talk to the medical staffs in their 'own language.' That's the big advantage I had at first, but now that I've built up relationships, they know that I'll get the story right.

TSP: Has a team ever offered you a position on its medical staff?

Will Carroll:Yes.

TSP: If so, why did you turn it down? Would you be interested in a role like that in the future?

Will Carroll: I've worked in consulting roles, but I'm not a doctor nor an Athletic Trainer. I wouldn't want to nor would I be qualified to tell any of those hard-working, well-trained professionals what to do. What I can do is offer suggestions and give an outsiders look at what they do.

TSP: Everybody points the finger at Barry Bonds as the poster child for steroids. However, most of the suspensions so far have been pitchers. Why does a guy like Roger Clemens essentially get a pass when all signs so far point to pitchers using steroids more then hitters?

Will Carroll: Good question. I think we need a villain, a role Bonds fills nicely. What seems to hurt more is when a "hero" is knocked down, such as a Clemens, a McGwire, or a Palmeiro. No one even wants to think about a player like Clemens or Ripken.

TSP: The NFL suspends players regularly for violating the substance abuse policy. Rarely do we hear this happen is baseball, even though Rays OF Elijah Dukes has admitted in court that he used marijuana regularly. Does the MLB not care about illegal drug use?

Will Carroll: Good lord no. Dukes was suspended and we've seen Jeremy Jeffress get suspended for marijuana use for a second time, putting the Brewers' prospect's career in jeopardy. MLB takes this very seriously, but does a great job using the EAP programs around the league to handle them. The NFL's just better at PR.

TSP: Sort of a follow up to the last question. Steroids in baseball is considered like the end all be all but, in the NFL you get your 4 game suspension and then everything goes back to normal. Why’s there such a difference is philosophy between the 2 leagues? Is it because MLB records are more sacred then the NFL?

Will Carroll:Public relations and perception. Someone should write a book about this.

TSP:How would you rate the Rays Staff and Medical Facilities?

Will Carroll:Top notch on staff. What the team has built up with Ken Crenshaw has been carried on by Ron Porterfield. It's one of the big advantages the team has. While some might point to Rocco Baldelli, I'll put keeping Kazmir healthy as a tougher task and one that many teams would have failed at. I can't comment on the facilities -- as odd as this sounds, I've never been able to get a press pass for the Rays games.

TSP:The Rays have done an exceptional job of keeping their young arms healthy. What do they do better than other teams and how much of it is just pure luck?

Will Carroll:There's not much luck, especially over the long haul. The Rays have made a commitment to the medical staff from top to bottom in the organization, something that started in the Naimoli era and continues today. They have a plan that's supported by everyone in the organization and great people working together to carry it out.

TSP:You recently took a question in a chat about Scott Kazmir & Pitch counts. How do you feel the Rays have handled their young pitchers at the Major League level? Are they being too cautious or are their limitations justified?

Will Carroll:Absent a logical development plan, they've been about as good as anyone. You could ping them for being slightly cautious, but I'll take that over the alternative.

TSP: Which is better for a player to compete on; natural grass or field turf? Are there more injuries on one than the other?

Will Carroll:There's definitely more injuries on turf. Even the best turf has a higher injury rate.

TSP: Besides Jeff Niemann, which young Rays Pitcher has the biggest risk of injury?

Will Carroll:Wade Townsend has a similar injury history without the same upside, but the one that I'd say is Kazmir. His mechanics and stubbornness to recognize that the limits have helped him rather than held him back really worry me. He's just so talented.

TSP:Is it time to give up on Rocco Baldelli as an everyday player?

Will Carroll:No, but it's close. I think there's still the chance to get him back to some level, but they need to make their last, best effort now.

TSP:What is the key to guys like Tim Wakefield & Greg Maddux avoiding major injuries throughout their major league careers?

Will Carroll:The knuckleball? I'm not sure we can draw any lesson from Wakefield , but Maddux is a combination of great mechanics, smart pitching, efficiency, and a continual focus on the craft of pitching. There's not many that can do what he does. No one would look at Maddux or his stuff and compare him to Clemens, Johnson, or Schilling, yet there he is.

TSP:Do people still use the Pitcher Abuse Point System as a way to measure wear & tear on a pitcher?

Will Carroll:Absolutely. It's the best available proxy. I'm working on a research project now that might give us a closer, game-to-game proxy, but until we can do needle biopsies or get the results of functional strength testing made public, PAP is the best system.

TSP:Why do you think it isn't talked about more? If not why did it fail as a measurement of abuse on a pitcher's arm?

Will Carroll:I'm not sure any statistical tool has ever had more of an effect on the game than PAP. If you look at the usage stats, we just don't have high PAP starts any more because it measured it so well and pointed it out to the general public. Now, it's likely something of an overreaction - some pitchers could go further and throw more, just as some could get more efficient and go deeper into games on the same pitch count.

TSP:Has Microfracture surgery become to the NBA what Tommy John is to the MLB & ACL is to the NFL?

Will Carroll:Nooooooo. Microfracture doesn't have near the success rate, but it's far newer and is getting better.

TSP:It’s been 4 years since you and Derek Zumsteg wrote the "Pete Rose Article". Do you still stand behind it till this day as being correct?

Will Carroll:Absolutely. Rose himself has been quoted as saying he had a deal.

TSP: I know you were working on novel a while back, are we going to see the finished product?

Will Carroll:Someday. It's one of those things on my "someday list"; I have a couple books in the works now.

TSP:Do you have any Sports related books on the horizon?

Will Carroll:Yes, one that hopefully will involve the Rays, but getting all the ducks lined up has been a bit more difficult than I anticipated. Nothing before 2009 as far as "on the shelf" is concerned.

TSP:And the get away question....Once and for all who is the founder of the Rays Bandwagon you or Jim Callis?

Will Carroll:You know, Jim was one of the original three people that I sent a copy of UTK to back in 2002. We've played in a retro league for years. I think we can share that

Thanks Will. Be sure to check out all of Will's work at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/

Weekly Chats

Welcome to another addition of the Stat Pack Chat Wrap. This week ESPN's Chris Mortensen and BP's Bryan Smith were very generous in answering our questions. We also have some question in there from Steve Goldman, David Thorpe, Matt Mosley & Mel Kiper Jr.

First up some Football Chatter with ESPN's Mort, Mosley & Kiper Jr.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Mel, I watched the Cal/OSU game and I was extremely impressed by Yvenson Bernard. Besides the hair he reminded me of Marion
Barber the Cal defense couldnt take him down. What do you think of him
and where does he project in the NFL?

Mel Kiper: He's always been a tough, productive player. Not a
game-breaker, but at the end of the day, he gets his yards. Probably a
day 2 guy who has a chance to make an NFL roster.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Anything on Romo's shoulder or will he be good to go sunday? Do you think this was the wake-up call the Cowboys needed?

Chris Mortensen: (11:05 AM ET ) I am assuming Romo will play. Wake up call? The Cowboys are not a dominant team. I saw them struggle in Miami for three quarters, in Buffalo and the Bears' game wasn't a breeze. All they can do is work on their deficiencies. They're a good team and, trust me, there aren't a lot of good teams in the NFL.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Can Chambers really be the #1 the Chargers have been looking for?

Chris Mortensen: (11:11 AM ET ) No, but he can be a really good No. 2 and, don't forget, the Patriots won three Super Bowls with WRs who were No. 2-type receivers.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey Mort, I here that the countdown guys hang around in the "War Room" on Sundays watching games and talking. Wouldnt that be a good show?...better then bowling

Chris Mortensen: (11:19 AM ET ) It's true, we watch all the games in a big conference room...big screens...HDTV... and it would be very popular TV....and some of us would probably get fired. (just kidding).

Tommy(TheStatPack): I know its early but I haven't heard many coaches on the hot seat yet. How safe is Marvin Lewis in Cincy?

Chris Mortensen: (11:44 AM ET ) The Bengals owner, Mike Brown, is generally patient. The next step, I believe, is for Brown to allow for a true general manager to work with Lewis. There has to be a change of organizational philosophy.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey Mort, I just bought Playing for Keeps haven't got a chance to read it yet but just wondering if you had any desire to write another book?

Chris Mortensen: (11:54 AM ET ) Thanks. I have a desire to write several books when my career settles into the next phase. I may give it a go this next off-season.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Did the Cardinals ever consider Drew Bledsoe?

Matt Mosley: (3:20 PM ET ) Not to my knowledge. Drew's trying to get his new winery up and running.

Next up some NBA & Seinfeld stuff with ESPN's David Thorpe

Tommy(TheStatPack): Isn't it crazy that Scott Boras represents A-Rod, Bonds & Kramer's pal Bob Sacamano

David Thorpe: (12:03 PM ET ) Nice.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Can Kenyon Martin, AI & Melo make the nuggets serious contenders in the west?

David Thorpe: (12:13 PM ET ) Sure they can. But will they? I'd lean to no, but inspired and focused play can change my mind.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Your listening to Mozart right...are you wearing a puffy shirt to go with it?

David Thorpe: (12:20 PM ET ) But I don't want to be a pirate!

Finally our friends at Baseball Prospectus Steve Goldman and Bryan Smith round out the week with some Baseball talk.

TV: This was funny, I had to include this other guys question so you could understand my question.

Chris (Minot, ND): Kevin, what do you deem as the chances of the Twins extending Santana? And if they do decide to trade him, can they possibly get equal value?

Steven Goldman: Hi, Chris. This is Steven Goldman here, Steve to my friends, one of whom, I am proud to report, is Kevin GoldSTEIN, BP prospect guru. I don't know what I'm a guru of around here. I've edited or co-edited a whole bunch of the books, including the recently released "It Ain't Over," and I guess I have the history beat with my "You Could Look It Up" column. Honestly, it doesn't matter so much if I'm a guru or not, as I'm just happy to be here with these wonderful guys and gals, anyone of whom would give you the shirt off his/her back if you were caught out in the open during a sudden downpour in the fifth inning of a Senators-Browns game in 1937. I'm honored to be mistaken for Kevin, though you wouldn't make that mistake in person. I have the hair, he has the funny hat. And the snappy comebacks.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Hey Will I love the UTK series good job!

Steven Goldman: Thank you. Please try to ignore the supermodel on my arm as I examine your groin pull. You'll only embarass us both...

...The word "best-selling" seems to have disappeared from my intro between NY Times and Baseball Prospectus. It's not like they bought BP or anything.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Is it time to push the panic button on Reid Brignac yet?

Bryan Smith: I get a question like this a lot, and I'm really surprised by it. The perception of this season as a bad year mirrors the same perception in 2005 -- and then he broke out. Expectations are a bit high if a 21-year-old shortstop in a tough AA league and stadium posting a .173 ISO isn't enough. No, Brignac is still a very good prospect, and certainly still the shortstop of the future in Tampa. The biggest problem is that this team needs all the defensive help it can get, and Brignac is fine, but far from golden, up the middle.

Tommy (TheStatPack): How come Granderson gets more love that Crawford?

Bryan Smith: Granderson plays a very good center, while Crawford now plays an average left. That's the most significant difference. The other, obvious one is that Granderson is a very affable character that isn't shy with the media or the fans. This plays a part in public perception. Lastly, he's younger and he has a fun record.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Do you watch House M.D.?

Bryan Smith: I did the first season on a weekly, religious basis, and really enjoyed it. Was glad Hugh Laurie got his Emmy, but for me, the show started to tail off a bit in the second season. I don't watch it anymore, but I have some friends that still swear by it.

Tommy (TheStatPack): You gotta come back to House...How do you see David Prices season progressing where does he start the season and where does he end up?

Bryan Smith: I think you see David Price start the season in Montgomery in Double-A. I'll guess he has something like 10 starts there, 8 starts in Durham, and 12 starts in the Majors. I like Tampa next season a bit, more in 2009, and a lot in 2010. If they can figure out the best mix for all these players and improve their defense, they'll fast forward to 90 wins pretty quickly.

Jules (TheStatPack): Do you watch Law and Order? Which one is your
favorite? SVU? CI?

Bryan Smith: Doesn't everybody? Law and Order is a great show to waste
an hour on, because it takes no prior knowledge of the show to watch an
episode and enjoy it. That's why it has lasted so long, I think. I like
SVU the best because of Mariska Hartigay, but the original L&O was very
good, too. I don't like the CI actor at all, or rather I don't like his
character: too smug.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Shocker non Rays question from me...What are your thoughts on Dellin Betances? Has he developed a true second pitch to go with that nasty fastball?

Bryan Smith: Last chat I missed that Betances got hurt this season, so I wanted to mention that. Betances has a curve that flashes signs of being good, but it's inconsistent.

Jules (TheStatPack): Speaking of Homer Bailey, what effect do you see
the hiring of Dusty Baker having on his career?

Bryan Smith: You're talking to a guy that lived in Chicago and watched
Dusty Baker as he destroyed two of the great pitching talents of this
generation. It really does bother me that Dusty Baker has found work
again, and for now, all I can hope is that he entered this arrangement
with stricter guidelines than he did when the Cubs handed him their keys

Jules (TheStatPack): Do you think Manny knows he used to play in
Cleveland?

Bryan Smith: For what it's worth, I absolutely love Manny Ramirez. I
find him to be one of the funniest people in baseball today, though he
doesn't always mean to be. However, he also loves baseball very much,
and he's one of the best ever. Does he remember living in Cleveland?
That answer could really go either way. I think that if he does, he
certainly couldn't remember where he lived.

Jules (TheStatPack): How far as Justin Smoak's stock fallen?

Bryan Smith: Not too far, because his freshman season, Cape season, and
sophomore season is still a really valuable body of work to draw from.
However, he has about as much pressure on him in the spring as any
projected top ten pick, because he'll slide if he gives at-bats away
like he did on Team USA. However, even without a great spring, I'm not
sure I can really argue Yonder Alonso over him yet

Tommy (TheStatPack): Its being reported that Torre will return to the Yanks on a 1 yr deal with a club option for 09. Does this matter to A-Rod at all?

Bryan Smith: Possibly on a public relations level only. If Torre isn't back, I think, PR-wise, you almost need A-Rod, Mo and Jorge all to be back next season. If Torre is back, maybe that lessens the hit of losing A-Rod, although I don't think it should. The Yankees should step up and meet A-Rod's demands, but I think there might be a chance it makes a difference

Tommy (TheStatPack): Does it soften the PR blow now that the Yanks make what looks like pretty fair offer and Torre was the one who walked? I could see Yankee fans seeing this and now siding with George

Bryan Smith: I actually think this means they NEED to get A-Rod signed. If they make pretty good offers to Torre and Alex Rodriguez, and those two Hall of Famers opt for greener pastures, what does that say about the state of Yankee baseball. The Bronx would be in panic mode, I'd bet. As far as A-Rod's pocketbook, this may have been the ideal scenario.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Is Carlos Silva the front runner for the Darren Dreifort like contract this offseason?

Bryan Smith: Well, different scenarios because I don't see Silva getting hurt and ruining his contract. Just being bad and making it look like a horrible contract. I guess were should call than Chan Ho Park like, though Silva won't be that bad. Then again, he could go to the National League and go all Jason Marquis on us.

Here are some non Stat Pack questions but Rays related and interesting.

TGisriel (Baltimore): If you were a GM would yuo be willing to acquire
Elijah Dukes, or do you think the headaches aren't worth the potential?

Bryan Smith: I would want a significant background check done on what
Dukes has been doing for the past few months. Other factors would need
to be involved, but if I was a small market team like Florida or KC, I'd
consider it if I got the right answers.

patsen29 (Toronto): What do you expect a Rays lineup to look like in
'09?

Bryan Smith: Moving around the diamond: Navarro, Pena, Harris, Brignac,
Longoria, Crawford, Upton, Young and Alvarez

BrettG (Worthington, OH): How did you forget Elijah Dukes in your answer
to "top-five guys who made their major league debuts in 2007?" I know
there are the obvious issues, but aren't the tools still there?

Bryan Smith: Dukes is just such an enigma, it's hard to anticipate where
he could even play baseball next season. I hope he figures his life out
and focuses on baseball, because he is so immensely talented, it's
scary. I'll really never forget the home run I saw him hit off Chuck
James in Durham. It was unbelievable.

RP (Chicago): Which side of the Jeff Niemann fence are you on?

Bryan Smith: I'm pro Jeff Niemann as a guy that, literally, could be the
fifth starter in Tampa soon. He'll be inconsistent, but he'll be
brilliant sometimes

That's all for the chats this week folks, be sure to tune in next week. Same Stat time, same Stat channel.

Weekly Chats

It's that time of the week, Chat Day here at The Stat Pack. We have started to branch out into the other sports a little more since the NFL is in full swing and NBA is about to start up. Oh and by the way we've busted out the big names...Chris Mortensen, Mel Kiper Jr, Jim Callis, Will Carroll etc...

We'll start out with Jim Callis of Baseball America, he seems to be our biggest fan. Then we'll move to John Perrotto & Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, Lots of good stuff there. Besides our typical Rays talk we branched out to some other things. Tommy tried to start a nickname Ryan Braun Campaign with Perrotto that included Back 2 Back Chat posts By Tommy & Jules; very Big Papi & ManRam-like. Jules may have started a possible war with Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus on who really started the Rays World Series Bandwagon...Enjoy

We're going to start including questions/statements from other chatters that are Rays-centric.

Jules (TheStatPack): I think the guys at BP are taking the reins of the Rays Bandwagon from you. You gonna step it up Jim?

Jim: I built that bandwagon! They can not take the reins! Come on! Back in our season preview, I had the Rays making the playoffs in 2010. I defy BP to show earlier support, so I will not relinquish the reins!

JW: People start asking him '10 Rays questions after I questioned his commitment.

Brad (Gadsden,Alabama): Is the David Price going to be the rays #1 starter when they go to the playoffs in 2010?

Jim: Yes.

PJ (Agawam MA): Are the Rays the East champ in 2010 or the wild card?

Jim: I had them as the East champs . . . and beating the Dodgers in the World Series.

Rob (ct): Best farm system in the AL east?

Jim: Devil Rays.

JW: That one was easy

Morgan (Newport Beach, CA): Brandon Wood or Evan Longoria

Jim: Longoria.

That's it for the Baseball America portion. On to Baseball Prospectus.

First up is the Tuesday chat with Kevin Goldstein.

userlock (NC): If Brignac has a good showing in the AFL, how much does he improve his stock? A Triple-A start with a look in september maybe?

Kevin Goldstein: I think that's Brignac's schedule as-is, even before the AFL season begins. I'm not sure how a big month in Arizona would change that too much.

Upton Fan (Tampa): Joe Sheehan and Will Carrol were talkin on fantasy 411 about Ian Stewart taking over at third sooner rather than later. Did I miss something good in his development? Or should I call and straighten them out about his future with the Rocks?

Kevin Goldstein: I'm just not buying it, but I think I'm also way further down than most are on him. He's just not that good. He's never been more than alright since his huge Sally League season -- and that's pretty much ancient history at this point. Decent third-base prospect, but no more.

Why'd that guy post as Upton Fan(Tampa) then ask a Rockies question?

JW: This question isn't Rays related or funny in any way, I just thought it was very interesting.

Scott (Chicago): How much do scouts make? From the 30 year scouts to the guys who have yet to make any organizational impact.

Kevin Goldstein: The job starts at about 30K/year with 200+ days a year of travel. A bigtime experienced area scout with an important region -- like SoCal or Texas or part of Florida is probably up to maybe 50-60K. Once you get into the cross-checkers and supervisors you move up a little more, and scouting directors get into the six-figures -- with more coming if they're also Asst. GMs

jaymoff (Salem, OR): If you were running the Tampa Bay (Devil) Ray ship how would the next 1-3 years shake out? They have so many young studs up now plus many more in the minors. This would certainly take a long time to answer in order to cover all the angles, but what would be the Cliff Notes version of your explanation?

Kevin Goldstein: 1. Spend $0 on free agents2. Use 2008 to evaluate young offensive talent and decide which you want to give pre-arb extensions too.3. Look at all young arms and evaluate for 2009 roles.4. Compete in 2009, be even better in 2010.

Justin (Brno, Czech Republic): Hi Kevin, appreciate your work. I have a theoretical question. Should the Pirates sell high and trade Snell and/or Gorzelany? If they did could they get a good prospect say like Evan Longoria from tampa bay?

Kevin Goldstein: No, and no.

JW: Is that guy high? Snell and/or Gorz for Longo? I wouldn't take the entire Pirates team for Longo.

Jules (TheStatPack): What do you see Longoria doing in the AFL? And What are your expectations for Halo 3?

Kevin Goldstein: I see him continuing to perform at a very high level, lining up for a 2008 rookie year. I'm a Playstation guy, as I tend to strongly prefer games developed in Japan. I'm sure Halo 3 is great and all, but FPS games just ain't my thing.

Jules (TheStatPack): Do you have a personal blog? Or do you just write for BP?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't, but I might -- I've thought about it in the past.

We'd love to get him on as a guest blogger.

JW: I asked this one as Matt Holliday:

Matt Holliday (Coors): Why am I naturally bald at 27?

Kevin Goldstein: Um, because that's life? I went to high school with a kid that was already going bald, and if any of you have ever been to a BP event or seen me elsewhere, you'd know that I'm hardly an expert in having a lot of hair.
That's all from KG. On to Will Carroll and John Perrotto.


Tommy (ChaimBloomsOffice): What are we gonna do with Elijah Dukes?

Will Carroll: Let him play Winter Ball, make him prove himself at every step, and see if Dukes can bring his career around, Josh Hamilton style.

Oh and while Jim Callis is claiming the Devil Rays bandwagon, I've been on it for perhaps longer than I should have been: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2703

JW: See what I started?

Tommy (TheStatPack): Does Rocco Baldelli play 100 Games next year?

Will Carroll: Do rehab games count?

TheStatPack (St. Pete): Who's more bald? or is it balder? You or KG?

Will Carroll: I think I shave it down further, since I am a straight razor guy.

Matt Holliday (Colorado): Why am I naturally bald at 27? When did you start?

Will Carroll: Because it looks good? Early 20s.

JW: That was me as Matt "The Snowman" Holliday again.

Tommy (TheStatPack): There always talk about Mcgee/Davis/Niemann, but what do you think about some of the Rays other arms like Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Mason, & Heath Rollins?

John Perrotto: Hellickson is the guy I hear good things about. Some scouts think he has a chance to be a pitcher at or near the of the rotation.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Who would you rather have the Yanks trio of Kennedy/Joba/Hughes or the Rays trio of Kazmir/Shields/And insert one of the following Mcgee/Davis/Price/Niemann

John Perrotto: At this point in time, Kazmier/Shields/whoever because they have proven they can pitch effectively at the major-league level. I really believe Kazmir and Shields can become one of the best 1-2 combos in the game very soon.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Where do you see Ryan Braun playing 3B or LF?

John Perrotto: I think eventually left field. He is shaky at third, to say the least, but, boy, you have to love his bat. He's something special offensively.

Tommy (TheStatPack): I agree Im in awe of Braun at the plate but doesn't he need a cool nickname.

John Perrotto: Yes, he does. Any suggestions?

Tommy (TheStatPack): The Lumberjack?

John Perrotto: Eh. I don't know. He went to the University of Miami, so Lumberjack just doesn't jibe there.

Jules (TheStatPack): How about Ryan "The Human Overthrow" Braun?

John Perrotto: Now, now, be nice.

John Perrotto: Well, thanks for all the questions I am so very looking forward to covering the ALCS for all the great BP readers. It should be a blast. And keep thinking up Ryan Braun nicknames.

ndubby (yay area): Tampa Bay is the only recent expansion team to not sniff the playoffs because a) they're in the AL, b) they're in the AL East, or c) they were run by Chuck Lamarr.

John Perrotto: B and C, though a lot of the young talent there now is courtesy of Chuck LaMar. Though he justifiably took his share of hits, he did bring in some pretty impressive young talent.

I thought that question was intersting and the answer was better. I'd like to see what RJ Anderson over at www.draysbay.com thinks of it.


For our NFL part Here are a few questions for ESPN's Chris Mortensen & Mel Kiper Jr. Also emailed NFL Injury Question with Sports Illustraded & BP's own Will Carroll

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey Mort any truth to Larry Fitzgerald to Dallas
rumors? Do you see anyone being moved before the deadline?

Chris Mortensen:(11:30 AM ET ) I haven't heard those rumors. The Cowboys do have two first-round draft picks and it's hard for me to fathom the Cardinals trading Fitzgerald when they are clearly in the hunt for the NFC West.
Now, if it included one of the receivers that former Cowboys receivers
coach Todd Haley likes (Haley is now on Arizona staff), plus a first
rounder, then that sounds like fun...mostly, it sounds like fun rumor stuff.

Did we just beat Chris Mortensen to a scoop?

Tommy(TheStatPack): I believe the Saints are better then what they've shown. So out of the other Winless teams who has the bigger chance to go
0-16 Rams or Dolphins

Chris Mortensen:(12:16 PM ET ) Nobody is going 16-0 or 0-16.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Hey Mel what are Matt Grothe's prospects for the NFL. He's like a shorter version of Tim Tebow

Mel Kiper: (1:09PM ET ) He's what he is; a very smart, intuitive QB. He has that 'it'factor as a college QB. He's got great toughness and leadership, and he makes plays. He delivers in the clutch a lot, but he's only about 6 feet,
205 pounds. He's only a sophomore, and I don't think he'll be an elite NFL
QB because of his size, and he doesn't have the great arm.

This is from an E-mail that Tommy sent to Will Carroll:

Hey Will,

Its rare fort an NFL QB's have TJ surgery, have there been any other cases
you know of? And 2nd question do you think Delhomme can make a full
recovery and come back just as strong if not stronger like a pitcher?

Will's Response: Rob Johnson's the one I can come up with. No reason to think he can't come back, though I'm dubious of the timeframe that the Panthers are throwing up there.

On to the NBA/Seinfeld Hour with David Thorpe

Tommy(TheStatPack): Does Penny have any gas left in the tank?

David Thorpe:(12:22 PM ET ) Not enough, I'm afraid.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Which Florida Gator makes the biggest impact for his team this season?

David Thorpe:(12:18 PM ET ) The odds say Big Al, but Noah and Brewer will make an impact too.

Tommy(TheStatPack): Better Seinfeld episode...Soup Nazi or The Contest?

David Thorpe:(12:24 PM ET ) I prefer the Menage episode, written by my friend Sam Kass.


That's all for the chats this week folks, be sure to tune in next week. Same Stat time, same Stat channel.

Weekly Chats

We try and participate in all the chats we can on Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.com . We submit questions and hope they're insightful/witty enough to catch the attention of the chatter so they'll answer them. Christina Kahrl and Jim Callis were chatting at the same time on BP and ESPN.com respectively. Later on in the day we even got a quick word in with ESPN's Around The Horn panelist J.A. Adande. It turned out to be a good day.

Jules(thestatpack): Do you think the '09 Rays can be te '07 Dbacks?

Jim Callis: '10 Rays. I'm on that bandwagon.

Awesome, that makes 3 of us on this wagon.

This one wasn't from us but it was about the Rays so I thought I'd include it.

Pedro Alvarez (Vandy): Please compare my offensive *potential* to that of past elite 3B prospects coming out of college like Gordon, Braun & Zimmerman. Will I be manning LF for Tampa in 2 years?

Jim Callis: More comparable to Gordon, who was considered a cut above Braun and Zimmerman. I do see Alvarez moving off 3B, and not just because Evan Longoria will be in Tampa.

Tommy(thestatpack): There is a report on mlb site saying David Price is a contender for making Rays rotation out of Spring Training. Is there anything to that? Could Price jump straight to the Majors without anytime in the Minors?

Jim Callis: He could, but why rush him? I bet he's up in August or September. Not like he's going to push the Rays over the top in '08.

Tommy asks this same question to Ms. Kahrl later.

Jules(thestatpack): What size shirt do you wear? I'm printing '10 Rays playoff shirts tonight.

Jim Callis: XL.

I've heard his voice, there's NO way Callis needs an extra large anything.

Tommy(Thestatpack): 2008 AL ROY Longoria or The Field

Jim Callis: The field. A lot of times the rookies come out of nowhere. I wouldn't have picked Ryan Braun or Dustin Pedroia, the likely 2007 winners, at this time a year ago.

Jules(thestatpack): 2009 Rays rotation: Kazmir, Shields, Price, _____, _____

Jim Callis: Jake McGee, Wade Davis.

I think Mr. Callis has a man crush on the Rays/us.

Here's the question that Tommy asked Callis originally

Tommy (TheStatPack): There is a report on mlb site saying David Price is a contender for making Rays rotation out of Spring Training. Is there anything to that? Could Price jump straight to the Majors without anytime in the Minors?

Christina Kahrl: I can't say it's *that* surprising. They tolerated Casey Fossum for so long I was beginning to wonder if they were simply forgetting to keep score in his starts.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Am I the only one that thinks Cal Ripken Jr. and Steve from Jerry Springer were seperated at birth?

Christina Kahrl: Has anyone ever seen them in the same place at the same time?

If you've seen the TBS playoff coverage you'll understand.

Tommy (TheStatPack): Will you be attending any of the ballpark events next year or do they have you locked in a cage like Goldstein.

Christina Kahrl: Maybe the best way for us to bust out of our cages is to do an event at Kane County next spring? Seriously, though, I had the privilege of co-hosting the ballpark event in RFK that Stan Kasten and company were willing to make happen, for which I haven't problem thanked them (or Maury Brown for his assist, for that matter). I look forward to doing more next season.

Tommy(TheStatPack): What is the seating capacity at Adande lounge?

J.A. Adande: Fire marshall caps it at 800. Huge dance floor. Exclusive
VIP section with bottle service

Its pretty much a given that The Stat Pack members are on that VIP list

Fantastic. As you can see...we're kind of a big deal.

Me and KG

KG being Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus. Apparently there's some basketball player who goes by KG too, these crazy kids and their nick names today. He has a weekley chat on BP and he apparently loves me because I got a shit ton of questions answered(a shit ton meaning 3). 99 percent of my questions will revolve around the Rays, so remember that.

Jules (TheStatPack): Assuming the Rays get the first pick in the '08 draft do they go with Alvarez or Smoak? Or will there be another player emerge during the season to unseat those two?

Kevin Goldstein: We still have a wholecollege and high school year for this to pan out, so yes, there are PLENTY of guys who could overtake Alvarez with a big year. I like Smoak, but I'm not HUGE on him -- taking a first base only guy with a top three pick would scare me a little bit.

Jules (TheStatPack): I e-mailedCarroll about this but he said he doesn't really watch minor league pitchers, so he directed me to you. Chris Mason won the Southern League Cy Young but isn't considered a top pitching prospect. What are the factors holding him back? Is it his delivery?

Kevin Goldstein: He's a fine prospect, just not in the Davis/McGee/Price group. He's more a guy with avg stuff and really good command than some kind of dominating force. I think he's a solid back rotation guy, and that's certainly worth something.

Jules (TheStatPack): So what's with you skipping out on the Ballpark Feeds at the Trop this year? First it was just Carroll, then Sheehan AND Carroll. Where's our dose of the KG?

Kevin Goldstein: They keep me in a cage here with a laptop and a cell phone. Every once in a while they open the door,ask me about some Double-A pitcher, gimme a cookie and lock me back in. Sad, really.

BP Chat Wrap 9/25/07

One of the things I love to do is chat with the writers over at Baseball Prospectus Here is a recap of my questions to Marc Normandin in todays chat

Tommy (The Trop): Looking at the lack of young talent in current FA market for Starting Pitchers for 08, could you see the Rays making a trade involving a major piece like Crawford in order to get a good young starter in return?

Marc Normandin: Now that Baldelli is potentially out of the picture, do you think they can afford to? I feel like this Crawford-for-Uber Starter deal has been mentioned since he came up.

Tommy (The Trop): You don't think Longoria will make the Rays out of spring training?

Marc Normandin: I just got assaulted by Rays fans, which is kind of nice to see. See above: I gave projections for both levels, on the basis that I would put him in Triple-A to start the year.

The reason I brought up the Crawford question is he's the most common named thrown around for the Rays and I was wondering what he thought Crawford would bring in return.

The Longoria question was in reference to a previous question where Marc eluded to thinking Evan would be called up in August. I can't see the Rays waiting until August with Longoria and I expect him to have a real legit shot to make the team out of Spring Training this year with Aki Iwamura moving to 2B

Hot Wives

During Will Carroll's recent chat over at BP I asked him who he thought had the hottest wife in baseball...here is what Will said

Tommy (The Trop): Podsednik's wife hottest in baseball?

Will Carroll: My hotness standards have become really skewed over the last year, but I'd say no. Aaron Boone still considered "in baseball?"

As for the rest of sports Im going with UF Quarterback Tim Tebow's unconfirmed "girlfriend"















Or Maybe Adam Archuleta's wife